Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>At a time of growing unease about political and economic risks in major economies, and continued uncertainty over the strength of the US recovery and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, investors have flocked into assets in Asian EMs.</li><li>The question is whether this perception of the relative safety of Asian emerging markets will remain now that valuations in Asian markets have expanded so much. We think a moderation of such capital inflows is forthcoming.</li></ul>

At a time of growing unease about political and economic risks in major economies, and continued uncertainty over the strength of the US recovery and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, investors have flocked into assets in Asian EMs.The question is whether this perception of the relative safety of Asian emerging markets will remain now that valuations in Asian markets have expanded so much. We think a moderation of such capital inflows is forthcoming.

Corporate Credit Analyst

Alan Greene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)

Will Capital Still Flow into Asian EMs?

At a time of growing unease about political and economic risks in major economies, and continued uncertainty over the strength of the US recovery...

Manu Bhaskaran

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the...

Alan Greene

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply...

Asia Advisors

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

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