External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Based on the MSME and consumer segments, BPR, and P2P data, we believe banks’ overall asset quality remains robust.</li><li>With higher FY24F CoC of 3.0%, BBRI has allocated adequate provisions to address the current issue in its MSME segment.</li><li>Maintain Overweight rating in the banking sector with BBCA remaining as our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Based on the MSME and consumer segments, BPR, and P2P data, we believe banks’ overall asset quality remains robust.With higher FY24F CoC of 3.0%, BBRI has allocated adequate provisions to address the current issue in its MSME segment.Maintain Overweight rating in the banking sector with BBCA remaining as our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Attractive Entry Point Amid Valuation Derating, Supported by the Still Robust Asset Quality

<ul><li>Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.</li><li>Despite a slight improvement (-4bps mom) in Apr24, COF pressure might return in May24 from a higher benchmark rate.</li><li>For its resilient CoF, higher liquidity, and better NP growth outlook compared to its peers, BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.Despite a slight improvement (-4bps mom) in Apr24, COF pressure might return in May24 from a higher benchmark rate.For its resilient CoF, higher liquidity, and better NP growth outlook compared to its peers, BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.</li><li>While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.</li><li>We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.While previously a higher-for-longer scenario drove a lower ROE and sharp de-rating, FY24F ROE is resilient amid better asset quality.We remain Overweight on the banking sector at the current implied CoE of 9.0%, -1SD to its 5-year average. BBCA remains our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Banks: Attractive Entry Point Amid Valuation Derating, Supported by the Still Robust Asset Quality

With higher FY24F CoC of 3.0%, BBRI has allocated adequate provisions to address the current issue in its MSME segment. Maintain Overweight rating...

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: 4M24 Banks-Only Results

Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Solid asset quality and capital to weather macro uncertainties (OVERWEIGHT)

We estimate the big-4 banks’ FY24F earnings to be potentially 1-6% lower if the BI rate is unchanged; BBCA as the least affected bank.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research

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