IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chong-hing-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:344:1" rel="noopener">Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK)</a>/CHB has despatched the scheme document in relation to a privatisation offer from Yuexiu Holdings, the largest shareholder who holds 74.97% of outstanding shares. The offeror will offer HK$20.80 per scheme share.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the privatisation precedent comparison could be improved. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). With no shareholder holding a blocking stake, we continue to believe that the substantial premium of the offer price to long-term average share prices and P/B multiples, makes it likely that the offer gains approval at the court meeting on 30 August (cheques dispatched on or before 7 October). At the current price of HK$20.45 per share, the gross spread to the offer price stands at 1.7%.</p></div>

Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK)/CHB has despatched the scheme document in relation to a privatisation offer from Yuexiu Holdings, the largest shareholder who holds 74.97% of outstanding shares. The offeror will offer HK$20.80 per scheme share.Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the privatisation precedent comparison could be improved. The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). With no shareholder holding a blocking stake, we continue to believe that the substantial premium of the offer price to long-term average share prices and P/B multiples, makes it likely that the offer gains approval at the court meeting on 30 August (cheques dispatched on or before 7 October). At the current price of HK$20.45 per share, the gross spread to the offer price stands at 1.7%.

Chong Hing’s Scheme Document, IFA Opinion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p>On the 18 May, Yue Xiu (the investment arm of the Guangzhou municipal government) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0519/2021051900117.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made an Offer</a>, by way of a Scheme, for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chong-hing-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:344:1" rel="noopener">Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK)</a> shares not owned, at HK$20.80/share, a 51.2% premium to last close, and a 97% premium to the day preceding the last trading day. The Cancellation Price, which was a 10.1% discount to the NAV, would NOT be increased.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Standard Scheme conditions apply. Chong Hing is Hong Kong incorporated, therefore there is no headcount test.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Scheme Document is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0730/2021073000133.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>.  The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 30 August with expected payment (assuming the Scheme resolutions are approved by independent shareholders) on the 7 October.</p>
<p>The IFA considers the Offer to be fair and reasonable, although that report covered the bare minimum. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


On the 18 May, Yue Xiu (the investment arm of the Guangzhou municipal government) made an Offer, by way of a Scheme, for Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) shares not owned, at HK$20.80/share, a 51.2% premium to last close, and a 97% premium to the day preceding the last trading day. The Cancellation Price, which was a 10.1% discount to the NAV, would NOT be increased.


Standard Scheme conditions apply. Chong Hing is Hong Kong incorporated, therefore there is no headcount test.


The Scheme Document is now out.  The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 30 August with expected payment (assuming the Scheme resolutions are approved by independent shareholders) on the 7 October.
The IFA considers the Offer to be fair and reasonable, although that report covered the bare minimum. 


More below the fold.


Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Huarong Asset Management / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Stress All Around: </em></strong>China Huarong Asset Management (2799.HK) [Huarong] still continues to teeter on the edge of insolvency and ongoing silence from Beijing has materially impacted funding costs. The USD 23.3 bn in Huarong debt, however, still risks crippling the USD credit market in mainland China. As Huarong is one of mainland China's largest issuers in offshore markets, this would be by far the largest credit default to date of an important state-owned company. Potential contagion risks via higher a cost of funding for offshore borrowing are occurring;  and </p><p><strong><em>*Evergrande Harbinger: </em></strong>Mainland Chinese authorities are going to great lengths to prevent a systemic daisy chain impact of a China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] default on the mainland Chinese financial system. Given the systemic risks also posed by Huarong, we believe the mainland Chinese will construct some form of bailout. Distressed investors should consider picking away at Huarong’s debt; we’ll believe it when see Beijing imposing losses SOEs.</p>

*Stress All Around: China Huarong Asset Management (2799.HK) [Huarong] still continues to teeter on the edge of insolvency and ongoing silence from Beijing has materially impacted funding costs. The USD 23.3 bn in Huarong debt, however, still risks crippling the USD credit market in mainland China. As Huarong is one of mainland China's largest issuers in offshore markets, this would be by far the largest credit default to date of an important state-owned company. Potential contagion risks via higher a cost of funding for offshore borrowing are occurring;  and *Evergrande Harbinger: Mainland Chinese authorities are going to great lengths to prevent a systemic daisy chain impact of a China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] default on the mainland Chinese financial system. Given the systemic risks also posed by Huarong, we believe the mainland Chinese will construct some form of bailout. Distressed investors should consider picking away at Huarong’s debt; we’ll believe it when see Beijing imposing losses SOEs.

China Huarong Asset Management – Preventing Another Daisy Chain

<p><strong><em>*Kick In The Pants: </em></strong>On July 21, 2021, HSBC Holdings plc (5.HK/HSBA.LN) [HSBC] and many of the other major Hong Banks finally had the epiphany of declining mortgages to borrowers on two of Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) residential developments in Hong Kong. On July 22, 2021, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) hauled HSBC and its colleagues in to explain the no lend decision on Evergrande’s two Hong Kong in process property  developments. Wouldn’t you know it, this subtle re-think request caused the banks to reverse course; and</p><p><em><strong>*Daisy Chain:</strong></em>This move by the HKMA and clearly prompted by authorities in mainland China intimates that Evergrande poses significant systemic risk for mainland China. Government officials in Shenyang are prompting SOEs to increase their ownership in Shengjing Bank (2966.HK), which is 36% owned by Evergrande and lent it an estimated USD 15.5 bn.    </p>

*Kick In The Pants: On July 21, 2021, HSBC Holdings plc (5.HK/HSBA.LN) [HSBC] and many of the other major Hong Banks finally had the epiphany of declining mortgages to borrowers on two of Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) residential developments in Hong Kong. On July 22, 2021, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) hauled HSBC and its colleagues in to explain the no lend decision on Evergrande’s two Hong Kong in process property  developments. Wouldn’t you know it, this subtle re-think request caused the banks to reverse course; and*Daisy Chain:This move by the HKMA and clearly prompted by authorities in mainland China intimates that Evergrande poses significant systemic risk for mainland China. Government officials in Shenyang are prompting SOEs to increase their ownership in Shengjing Bank (2966.HK), which is 36% owned by Evergrande and lent it an estimated USD 15.5 bn.    

HSBC Holdings Plc – Strong Armed By The HKMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Capitaland, Boral, Milton/WHSP, Santos/Oil Search, Education Profit Ban

Hong Kong

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

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Bank of East Asia (23 HK)

Chong Hing’s Scheme Document, IFA Opinion

We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the privatisation precedent comparison could be improved. The proposal will likely...

Arun George

Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair

Taking over a bank at below book, not just with respect to precedent transactions, appears too cheap. Nevertheless, no other suitor will emerge....

David Blennerhassett

China Huarong Asset Management – Preventing Another Daisy Chain

CHINA HUARONG: Huarong still continues to teeter on the edge of insolvency. The USD 23.3 bn debt, however, still risks crippling the USD credit...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc – Strong Armed By The HKMA

HSBC HOLDINGS: HSBC had an epiphany of declining mortgages on two of Evergrande’s local developments. The HKMA wanted an explanation and wouldn’t...

Thomas J. Monaco

Last Week in Event SPACE: Capitaland, Boral, Milton/WHSP, Santos/Oil Search, Education Profit Ban

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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