Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead.

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. 

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

United States

Bank of Montreal, doing business as BMO Financial Group, is a Canadian chartered bank which operates throughout the world.  The Bank offers commercial, corporate, governmental, international, personal banking, and trust services. Bank of Montreal also offers full brokerage, underwriting, investment, and advisory services.

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Bank Of Montreal (BMO CN)

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

We are seeing rotations back into risk-on areas of the market (Energy & Financials), a bullish sign for global equities. We are bullish and we...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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