Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank of India (SBIN IN)</a> represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-macro-manifest-risk-rally-gathers-steam-as-bad-news-more-stimulus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Macro Manifest</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy</a> notes for more details.

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. State Bank of India (SBIN IN) represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent Bank Macro Manifest and Bank Credit Strategy notes for more details.

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank of the Philippine Islands / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak Results: Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI.PM) [BPI] reported 4Q20 results of PHP 4.2 bn, declining PHP 1.3 bn (23.1%) linked quarter. Results were difficult across the board for BPI, but primarily driven by a justified PHP 885 mn (14.6%) increase in loss provisions – reversing the decline seen in 3Q20. BPI will be holding an analyst briefing on Friday 29 January 2021; and  *Credit Quality Challenges Set To Continue: BPI is still contending with higher than normal NCOs which have caused an accelerated level of net new NPLs at 4Q20 of 65.4%. Given the continued break in credit which shows no signs of abating, we find that BPI’s reserves are short by over PHP 19.0 bn – nearly five years of bottom-line performance.

*Weak Results: Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI.PM) [BPI] reported 4Q20 results of PHP 4.2 bn, declining PHP 1.3 bn (23.1%) linked quarter. Results were difficult across the board for BPI, but primarily driven by a justified PHP 885 mn (14.6%) increase in loss provisions – reversing the decline seen in 3Q20. BPI will be holding an analyst briefing on Friday 29 January 2021; and  *Credit Quality Challenges Set To Continue: BPI is still contending with higher than normal NCOs which have caused an accelerated level of net new NPLs at 4Q20 of 65.4%. Given the continued break in credit which shows no signs of abating, we find that BPI’s reserves are short by over PHP 19.0 bn – nearly five years of bottom-line performance.  

Bank of Philippine Islands – Lots Of Wood To Chop

Executive Summary: We noted last weekend that Treasury yields could gap down as True-Blue election sweep expectations declined and that bank valuations would follow. Both outcomes took place during the first part of the week. President Trump has gained enough in polls for traders with bearish positions in long-dated Treasuries to start unwinding them.  If Republicans’ retain the Senate, then fiscal stimulus may be lower than currently expected.  The December VIX future may also underprice the risk of a contested election result while thin markets keep volatility elevated.On Wednesday, most US stock indices posted their biggest single-day drop since June while European shares met five-month lows. As such, implied equity volatility jumped to its highest readings in 6 weeks. The US dollar and commodities also exhibited risk-off behaviour. Soaring Coronavirus cases in the US and Europe added to market jitters on the eventual time to a US federal stimulus package. The lack of a strong bullish reaction in Treasuries while equities sold-off reinforced concerns that low yields significantly reduce hedging protection. Within this background, Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds underperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, in concert with developed market risk-off sentiment. The top performing bonds were overwhelmingly short maturity Senior Unsecured in nature. Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes widened during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.Financial institutions only issued US$4.5 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19515:1" rel="noopener">Industrial Bank Co Ltd A (601166 CH)</a> and Kookmin Bank (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:718:1" rel="noopener">KB Financial Group (105560 KS))</a> were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The primary market issuance window may be closing very early this year.In terms of potential mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> is considering an offer for IndusInd Bank, which IndusInd subsequently denied. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kotak-indusind-happy-indusind-bondholders-move-to-overweight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44542" rel="noopener">Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight</a> for more details. On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> reported a 53% year-on-year decline in second quarter net profit that missed average analyst estimates. Despite the earnings miss and acquisition dismissal, IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon bond rose in price during the week.Market Outlook: Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market illiquidity and impact bank valuation over the near term.

Executive Summary: We noted last weekend that Treasury yields could gap down as True-Blue election sweep expectations declined and that bank valuations would follow. Both outcomes took place during the first part of the week. President Trump has gained enough in polls for traders with bearish positions in long-dated Treasuries to start unwinding them.  If Republicans’ retain the Senate, then fiscal stimulus may be lower than currently expected.  The December VIX future may also underprice the risk of a contested election result while thin markets keep volatility elevated.On Wednesday, most US stock indices posted their biggest single-day drop since June while European shares met five-month lows. As such, implied equity volatility jumped to its highest readings in 6 weeks. The US dollar and commodities also exhibited risk-off behaviour. Soaring Coronavirus cases in the US and Europe added to market jitters on the eventual time to a US federal stimulus package. The lack of a strong bullish reaction in Treasuries while equities sold-off reinforced concerns that low yields significantly reduce hedging protection. Within this background, Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds underperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, in concert with developed market risk-off sentiment. The top performing bonds were overwhelmingly short maturity Senior Unsecured in nature. Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes widened during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.Financial institutions only issued US$4.5 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the Industrial Bank Co Ltd A (601166 CH) and Kookmin Bank (KB Financial Group (105560 KS)) were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The primary market issuance window may be closing very early this year.In terms of potential mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg reported that Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) is considering an offer for IndusInd Bank, which IndusInd subsequently denied. Please see Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight for more details. On Friday, Indusind Bank (IIB IN) reported a 53% year-on-year decline in second quarter net profit that missed average analyst estimates. Despite the earnings miss and acquisition dismissal, IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon bond rose in price during the week.Market Outlook: Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market illiquidity and impact bank valuation over the near term.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Reduction on Election and Virus Uncertainty

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

The Philippines has been of the worst-hit countries in South-East Asia by COVID-19, given its strict and lengthy lockdown. Its GDP growth declined by -16.5% in 2Q2020 versus an average growth rate of +6.4% between 2010 to 2019. Now the country is coming out of lockdown, we are seeing the first signs of recovery and look for a way to play this resurgence story. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gt-capital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:215:1" rel="noopener">GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM)</a> is an interesting proxy for post-COVID-19 recovery in the Philippines, as the distributor for Toyota vehicles in the country. It also has a controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metropolitan-bank-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:326:1" rel="noopener">Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM)</a>, one of the nation's best quality banks. 
The most recent car sales numbers from the Philippines showed a slowing decline in auto sales in September of -22% versus a -44% decline YoY for 9M2020. Passenger cars saw a lesser decline of -12% YoY in September but saw a sharp rebound MoM of +54% in that month.
Subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metropolitan-bank-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:326:1" rel="noopener">Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM)</a> continues to shift its customers to digital channels, with 79% of total transactions in 2Q2020 online versus 69% a year ago, and continues to see strong underlying growth in PPOP. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gt-capital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:215:1" rel="noopener">GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM)</a> property arm Federal Land has been increasingly successfully marketing properties by digital means, whilst AXA Philippines is already performing well with most of its policies now being sold through digital channels. 
Its infrastructure exposure through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a> is also seeing a much-improved performance, with a pick up in toll-road traffic and electricity consumption. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gt-capital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:215:1" rel="noopener">GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM)</a> trades on 7.4x FY21E PER versus a 3-year average of 11.7x forward PER, and 0.5x FY2020 PBV versus a 3-year average of 1.1x PBV.  Better numbers should lead to a re-rating of the company back toward historical levels.

The Philippines has been of the worst-hit countries in South-East Asia by COVID-19, given its strict and lengthy lockdown. Its GDP growth declined by -16.5% in 2Q2020 versus an average growth rate of +6.4% between 2010 to 2019. Now the country is coming out of lockdown, we are seeing the first signs of recovery and look for a way to play this resurgence story. 
GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) is an interesting proxy for post-COVID-19 recovery in the Philippines, as the distributor for Toyota vehicles in the country. It also has a controlling stake in Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM), one of the nation's best quality banks. 
The most recent car sales numbers from the Philippines showed a slowing decline in auto sales in September of -22% versus a -44% decline YoY for 9M2020. Passenger cars saw a lesser decline of -12% YoY in September but saw a sharp rebound MoM of +54% in that month.
Subsidiary Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM) continues to shift its customers to digital channels, with 79% of total transactions in 2Q2020 online versus 69% a year ago, and continues to see strong underlying growth in PPOP. 
GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) property arm Federal Land has been increasingly successfully marketing properties by digital means, whilst AXA Philippines is already performing well with most of its policies now being sold through digital channels. 
Its infrastructure exposure through Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) is also seeing a much-improved performance, with a pick up in toll-road traffic and electricity consumption. 
GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) trades on 7.4x FY21E PER versus a 3-year average of 11.7x forward PER, and 0.5x FY2020 PBV versus a 3-year average of 1.1x PBV.  Better numbers should lead to a re-rating of the company back toward historical levels. 

GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) - A Philippines Recovery Prospect

US high yield markets outperformed Asia’s as expectations of an eventual US stimulus package met hopes for a less contentious US election result as Joe Biden’s polling lead grew. The relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. We expect this decompression to end on a buy the rumour, sell the news, trade on prospects for a Democratic Party election sweep over the next few weeks.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening accelerated on continued improved risk sentiment and reflation expectations. Concurrently, President Trump’s vacillation between off, then on, economic stimulus talks were met with bewilderment, if not outright health concerns.  Short-term interest rate futures spiked upwards as the news of President Trumps COVID-19 diagnosis changed election outcome projections and prospects of eventual federal stimulus pushed rate expectations even higher. In US equity markets, futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) and spot VIX Index levels fell on lower perceived downside risks and higher expectations of a less contentious election result.Emerging market capital inflows rebounded strongly during the week as US dollar weakness returned. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits.Meanwhile, Asia bank credit investors favoured a mix of high quality and higher yield Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and subordinated debt, in-line with the tepid increase in Asia’s risk sentiment. As the week closed, the Reserve Bank of India announced additional unconventional monetary policy stimulus measures aimed at improving credit transmission via the local bond market. This should benefit the more active debt capital market participants.Concurrently, only US$5.6 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD and Euros in the form of Senior HoldCo, Senior Non-preferred and AT1 bonds. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank (KBANK TB)</a> issued an AT1 bond, following the successful placement two weeks ago by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank (BBL TB)</a>. We anticipate additional AT1 issuance by Thai-headquartered banks due to their capital stack needs. For more on this and the unique challenges of these banks, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43884" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital Constraints and Debt Issuance Needs</a> as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity</a>.  Looking forward, China is reported to be considering the issuance of an offshore US$-bond for the fourth straight year. The transaction could occur in the next week. Market Outlook A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations.Inside: In this weekly, we elaborate on these themes as we review global credit index levels, equity volatility,  interest rates, Eurodollar futures and fund flows as well as bank bond spread moves and recent debt issuance to identify possible investment opportunities and potential pitfalls in Asia-headquartered bank bonds.

US high yield markets outperformed Asia’s as expectations of an eventual US stimulus package met hopes for a less contentious US election result as Joe Biden’s polling lead grew. The relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. We expect this decompression to end on a buy the rumour, sell the news, trade on prospects for a Democratic Party election sweep over the next few weeks.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening accelerated on continued improved risk sentiment and reflation expectations. Concurrently, President Trump’s vacillation between off, then on, economic stimulus talks were met with bewilderment, if not outright health concerns.  Short-term interest rate futures spiked upwards as the news of President Trumps COVID-19 diagnosis changed election outcome projections and prospects of eventual federal stimulus pushed rate expectations even higher. In US equity markets, futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) and spot VIX Index levels fell on lower perceived downside risks and higher expectations of a less contentious election result.Emerging market capital inflows rebounded strongly during the week as US dollar weakness returned. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits.Meanwhile, Asia bank credit investors favoured a mix of high quality and higher yield Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and subordinated debt, in-line with the tepid increase in Asia’s risk sentiment. As the week closed, the Reserve Bank of India announced additional unconventional monetary policy stimulus measures aimed at improving credit transmission via the local bond market. This should benefit the more active debt capital market participants.Concurrently, only US$5.6 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD and Euros in the form of Senior HoldCo, Senior Non-preferred and AT1 bonds. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) issued an AT1 bond, following the successful placement two weeks ago by Bangkok Bank (BBL TB). We anticipate additional AT1 issuance by Thai-headquartered banks due to their capital stack needs. For more on this and the unique challenges of these banks, please see Thai Bank Capital Constraints and Debt Issuance Needs as well as Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity.  Looking forward, China is reported to be considering the issuance of an offshore US$-bond for the fourth straight year. The transaction could occur in the next week. Market Outlook A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations.Inside: In this weekly, we elaborate on these themes as we review global credit index levels, equity volatility,  interest rates, Eurodollar futures and fund flows as well as bank bond spread moves and recent debt issuance to identify possible investment opportunities and potential pitfalls in Asia-headquartered bank bonds.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk-On as US Election and Stimulus Outlooks Sharpen

Philippines

Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) is a universal bank offering a wide range of financial products and solutions to retail and corporate clients. Its services include consumer banking and lending, asset management, insurance, securities brokerage, foreign exchange, leasing, and corporate and investment banking. BPI is headquartered in Makati City, Philippines, and was founded on August 1, 1851.

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Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI PM)

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Global bank bond prices fell by less than their benchmark notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Given the rate of change, there are...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank of Philippine Islands – Lots Of Wood To Chop

BANK OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS: BPI reported a 23.1% linked quarter earnings decline in 4Q20. Results were difficult across the board for BPI,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Reduction on Election and Virus Uncertainty

Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market...

Hank Calenti, CFA

GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) - A Philippines Recovery Prospect

GT Capital provides high-quality, yet high beta exposure to the Philippines recovery though banking, autos, utilities, and property

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk-On as US Election and Stimulus Outlooks Sharpen

A concise must-read on US$-risk sentiment derived from equity markets, rates, issuance, dollar levels and capital flows to frame near term Asia...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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