Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.</li><li>Despite a slight improvement (-4bps mom) in Apr24, COF pressure might return in May24 from a higher benchmark rate.</li><li>For its resilient CoF, higher liquidity, and better NP growth outlook compared to its peers, BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.Despite a slight improvement (-4bps mom) in Apr24, COF pressure might return in May24 from a higher benchmark rate.For its resilient CoF, higher liquidity, and better NP growth outlook compared to its peers, BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BBRI reported 4M24 NP of Rp17.8tr (+4% yoy) with PPOP growth of 15% supported by higher other op. income and 12% loans growth.</li><li>Off 1Q24’s high base CoC of 3.7% (Feb24’s CoC was 6.7%), BBRI’s CoC improved to 3.3%. This should ease asset quality concerns.</li><li>The bank’s share price has declined by 28% since Mar24, bringing its PBV to slightly below mean and implied CoE to 11.1% (close to -2SD).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBRI reported 4M24 NP of Rp17.8tr (+4% yoy) with PPOP growth of 15% supported by higher other op. income and 12% loans growth.Off 1Q24’s high base CoC of 3.7% (Feb24’s CoC was 6.7%), BBRI’s CoC improved to 3.3%. This should ease asset quality concerns.The bank’s share price has declined by 28% since Mar24, bringing its PBV to slightly below mean and implied CoE to 11.1% (close to -2SD).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) 4M24 Earnings Aided by Other Operating Income

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank Negara stands out versus its peers for its value attributes, its attractive PEG ratio, and its improving pre- and post-provision returns with top NPL coverage relative to its peers</li>
<li>Bank Mandiri remains a buy for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its well-controlled CoR; Mandiri has a far better valuations-to-returns mix than mega-cap BCA </li>
<li>Bank Rakyat comes off the sell list; it registered improved pre-provision returns in 1Q24, and although cost of risk worsened, post-provision returns were maintained along with its NPL coverage ratio</li>
</ul>


Bank Negara stands out versus its peers for its value attributes, its attractive PEG ratio, and its improving pre- and post-provision returns with top NPL coverage relative to its peers
Bank Mandiri remains a buy for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its well-controlled CoR; Mandiri has a far better valuations-to-returns mix than mega-cap BCA 
Bank Rakyat comes off the sell list; it registered improved pre-provision returns in 1Q24, and although cost of risk worsened, post-provision returns were maintained along with its NPL coverage ratio


Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Stands Out on Value, Growth Potential and Improving Return Trends

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Banks: 4M24 Banks-Only Results

Supported by lower CoF increases compared to their peers, only BBCA, BRIS, and NISP booked double digit NP growth in 4M24.

BRI Danareksa Research