Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We rate Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics</li>
<li>We also recommend Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and modest PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat registered worsening returns in 1Q23, with pre-provision returns declining again QoQ and cost of risk rising; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward</li>
</ul>


We rate Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics
We also recommend Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and modest PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
Bank Rakyat registered worsening returns in 1Q23, with pre-provision returns declining again QoQ and cost of risk rising; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward


Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Is Our Preferred Pick

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Pertamina Hulu Energi / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-hulu-energi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39781:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Hulu Energi</a>  is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>PHE is a subsidiary of  Pertamina (Persero), which operates an integrated end-to-end energy business, from upstream to downstream businesses. PHE manages the upstream oil and gas assets of its parent.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Pertamina Hulu Energi  is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO.
PHE is a subsidiary of  Pertamina (Persero), which operates an integrated end-to-end energy business, from upstream to downstream businesses. PHE manages the upstream oil and gas assets of its parent.
In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Negatives - Past Growth Record Seems Lackluster

PT Pertamina (Persero) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-hulu-energi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39781:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Hulu Energi</a>  is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>PHE is a subsidiary of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-pertamina-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35862:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina (Persero)</a>, which operates an integrated end-to-end energy business, from upstream to downstream businesses. PHE manages the upstream oil and gas assets of its parent.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Pertamina Hulu Energi  is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO.
PHE is a subsidiary of  Pertamina (Persero), which operates an integrated end-to-end energy business, from upstream to downstream businesses. PHE manages the upstream oil and gas assets of its parent.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Positives - High Domestic Market Share

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panin-financial-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19472:1" rel="noopener">Panin Financial (PNLF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energi-mega-persada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17534:1" rel="noopener">Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Potential adds are Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), Panin Financial (PNLF IJ), Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO).
Potential deletions are Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia</li>
<li>The past week saw Insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific (MPI PM)</a> </li>
<li>There were also insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and Thai Banks. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia
The past week saw Insights on GoTo (GOTO IJ), Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ), AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ), Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) , and Metro Pacific (MPI PM) 
There were also insights on Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB), Genting Singapore (GENS SP), HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Thai Banks. 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo CM Breakeven, Siloam Hospitals, and BNI in Better Shape

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Is Our Preferred Pick

Negara is our top pick of the Indonesian banks for its deep value with strong returns and sound liquidity and funding metrics; we retain our buy on...

Victor Galliano

Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Negatives - Past Growth Record Seems Lackluster

Pertamina Hulu Energi is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. In this note we talk about the not so positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo CM Breakeven, Siloam Hospitals, and BNI in Better Shape

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Negara Is Our Preferred Pick

Negara is our top pick of the Indonesian banks for its deep value with strong returns and sound liquidity and funding metrics; we retain our buy on...

Victor Galliano

Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Negatives - Past Growth Record Seems Lackluster

Pertamina Hulu Energi is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. In this note we talk about the not so positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

Pertamina Hulu Energi Early Look - The Positives - High Domestic Market Share

Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo CM Breakeven, Siloam Hospitals, and BNI in Better Shape

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh