ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a> booked a better set of 3Q2024 results although Micro continues to need further restructuring, although it looks to have turned the corner on credit costs. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, the bank has seen better performance from corporate and consumer lending offsetting slower micro and small. NIMs have improved as the cost of funds has improved with CASA Growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a> ultra-micro businesses outperformed in 9M2024, especially Pegadaian but PNM is seeing higher credit costs. Valuations are attractive on 2.2x FY2024E PBV with an ROE of 19.0%.</li>
</ul>



Bank Rakyat Indonesia booked a better set of 3Q2024 results although Micro continues to need further restructuring, although it looks to have turned the corner on credit costs. 
Meanwhile, the bank has seen better performance from corporate and consumer lending offsetting slower micro and small. NIMs have improved as the cost of funds has improved with CASA Growth.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia ultra-micro businesses outperformed in 9M2024, especially Pegadaian but PNM is seeing higher credit costs. Valuations are attractive on 2.2x FY2024E PBV with an ROE of 19.0%.


Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Visibly Turning the Corner

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Merdeka Battery Materials / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes each for the IDX30 Index, LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes each for the IDX30 Index, LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Merdeka Battery Materials, Mitra Adiperkasa, Adaro Minerals, Bank Mandiri Persero, Amman Mineral Internasional, Adaro Energy and Indo Tambangraya Megah.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Large Flows in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>BCA is showing a strong rise in its LDR, and this had been an historical concern</li>
<li>Its asset-liability management (ALM) is improving, with NIM moving higher still</li>
<li>No evidence of marked deterioration in credit metrics, provision costs are conservative</li>
</ul>


BCA is showing a strong rise in its LDR, and this had been an historical concern
Its asset-liability management (ALM) is improving, with NIM moving higher still
No evidence of marked deterioration in credit metrics, provision costs are conservative


BCA - Focus on LDR, Which Had Historically Been a Problem, Too Low, With Stable Credit Metrics

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catur-sentosa-adiprana-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18671:1" rel="noopener">Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci,</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nsl-ltd-singapore" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12666:1" rel="noopener">NSL Ltd (NSL SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-diy-holding-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43926:1" rel="noopener">DIY Holding (Thailand)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on Indonesia Strategy, and insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-pcl-6b5341fe-4d93-483e-9cb0-d5d833cdc53e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrovietnam-oil-corporation-pv-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43954:1" rel="noopener">PetroVietnam Oil (OIL VN)</a>, </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Berli Jucker, Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP IJ), Lippo Karawaci,  Silverlake Axis, NSL Ltd (NSL SP), and DIY Holding (Thailand).
There was also a macro insight on Indonesia Strategy, and insights on Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT TB), and PetroVietnam Oil (OIL VN), 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma  - Berli Jucker, CSAP, and Silverlake Asia

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)