Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share</li>
<li>All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS</li>
<li>57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest</li>
</ul>


Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share
All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS
57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-syariah-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)</a> reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24</li>
<li>Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures</li>
<li>Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even &gt;3% from this</li>
</ul>



Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ) reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24
Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures
Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even &gt;3% from this


BRIS - Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.</li>
<li>Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.</li>
<li>Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.</li>
</ul>


The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.
Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.
Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.


ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Indonesia

PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. operates as a bank. The Bank offers checking accounts, credit and debit cards, loans, insurance, payment protection, phone banking, bill pay, fund transfer, and merchant services. Bank Syariah Indonesia serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)

BRIS - Dominant

BRIS is relatively newly formed, with an incredibly dominant Shariah lending market share, where growth is high and can continue with strong asset...

Daniel Tabbush

BRIS - Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

BRIS just released its 4Q24 results, with strong numbers. Asset growth is high, credit costs are down, fee income is improving.

Daniel Tabbush

ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN positioning shifts as Indonesia loses ground and Malaysia stays weak. Singapore and Thailand attract inflows, while new leaders like ICTSI...

Steven Holden

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

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