EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the potential impending OPEC deal. </div><div>Short positions have steadily been building under the assumption a deal likely won't be done, or if it is done then it won't be enforceable and not take enough barrels off the market. </div><div>This had sparked a predictable series of leaks and a flurry of diplomatic activity from oil ministers and the OPEC Secretary General to try…</div>

Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the potential impending OPEC deal. Short positions have steadily been building under the assumption a deal likely won't be done, or if it is done then it won't be enforceable and not take enough barrels off the market. This had sparked a predictable series of leaks and a flurry of diplomatic activity from oil ministers and the OPEC Secretary General to try…

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li><strong>Singapore’s Energy Sector was the strongest of Singapore’s stock Sectors in October, with a 10.4% market capitalisation weighted total return on oil and coal price swings. This followed on from Energy also being the strongest of the Sectors back in September.</strong></li><li><strong>The 10 largest capitalised stocks of Singapore’s Energy Sector averaged a 12.5% total return in October, consisting of seven advancing stocks and three declining stocks. CAO, the largest capitalised stock of Singapore’s Energy Sector is scheduled to report 3Q16 results Wednesday.</strong></li><li><strong>Two of the 10 largest capitalised Energy stocks, Geo Energy Resources and KrisEnergy also ranked amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest increase in their October traded volume, compared to respective three month average volumes. Geo Energy Resources was the fifth biggest volume leader while KrisEnergy was the sixth biggest volume leader.</strong></li></ul>

Singapore’s Energy Sector was the strongest of Singapore’s stock Sectors in October, with a 10.4% market capitalisation weighted total return on oil and coal price swings. This followed on from Energy also being the strongest of the Sectors back in September.The 10 largest capitalised stocks of Singapore’s Energy Sector averaged a 12.5% total return in October, consisting of seven advancing stocks and three declining stocks. CAO, the largest capitalised stock of Singapore’s Energy Sector is scheduled to report 3Q16 results Wednesday.Two of the 10 largest capitalised Energy stocks, Geo Energy Resources and KrisEnergy also ranked amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest increase in their October traded volume, compared to respective three month average volumes. Geo Energy Resources was the fifth biggest volume leader while KrisEnergy was the sixth biggest volume leader.

Energy the Strongest Sector in October on Oil & Coal Price Swings

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The <strong>Vongkusolkij</strong> family of Mitr Phol Group boasts market leadership in not one but two very distinct industries: sugar and coal (Banpu), and have diversified into power. But they are also big shareholders in Erawan, Thailand's largest low-cost hotel play. To understand why anyone would want to get into three very different sectors, we outline the structure of Thailand's sugar industry and the family structure and personality of <strong>Chanin</strong>, the patriarch's younger brother, to understand their diversification. You will be equally surprised that the family has dabbled in insurance (Royal Sun &amp; Alliance) and even has links to the founders of Kiatnakin Phatra, an investment bank that has gained a great deal of spotlight lately...and of course, the timing for this review couldn't be better. October 28 was Banpu Power's first trading day.</p>

The Vongkusolkij family of Mitr Phol Group boasts market leadership in not one but two very distinct industries: sugar and coal (Banpu), and have diversified into power. But they are also big shareholders in Erawan, Thailand's largest low-cost hotel play. To understand why anyone would want to get into three very different sectors, we outline the structure of Thailand's sugar industry and the family structure and personality of Chanin, the patriarch's younger brother, to understand their diversification. You will be equally surprised that the family has dabbled in insurance (Royal Sun &amp; Alliance) and even has links to the founders of Kiatnakin Phatra, an investment bank that has gained a great deal of spotlight lately...and of course, the timing for this review couldn't be better. October 28 was Banpu Power's first trading day.

Rabble Rousers (Episode 2): The Hardest Dots To Connect

<p><strong>SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy &amp; Resources.</strong></p><p><strong>Geo Energy Resources has been the strongest performer among the four upstream plays in the 2016 year to date with a 37.9% gain. On 12 August,  Geo Energy Group reported that for the six months ending 30 June 2016, company revenue was US$33 million compared to US$10 million for the same period a year ago.</strong></p>

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy &amp; Resources.Geo Energy Resources has been the strongest performer among the four upstream plays in the 2016 year to date with a 37.9% gain. On 12 August,  Geo Energy Group reported that for the six months ending 30 June 2016, company revenue was US$33 million compared to US$10 million for the same period a year ago.

Geo Energy Resources Led Upstream Coal Plays in 2016 YTD

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23631" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23631:1">Banpu Power PCL (BPP TB)</a>, the utility subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15363" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15363:1">Banpu Public Co Ltd (BANPU TB)</a>, is currently raising US$330-390m to pay down debt and fund expansion. In this insight, we will cover the follow topics: </p><ul><li>What are its main segments and what are the main growth drivers?</li><li>What are the key risks to forecasts?</li><li>How does it fare again its peers?</li><li>The deal's valuation.</li><li>How does it score in our quant driven Smartkarma ECM Framework?</li></ul><p>We would like to thank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> for his valuable input.</p>

Banpu Power PCL (BPP TB), the utility subsidiary of Banpu Public Co Ltd (BANPU TB), is currently raising US$330-390m to pay down debt and fund expansion. In this insight, we will cover the follow topics: What are its main segments and what are the main growth drivers?What are the key risks to forecasts?How does it fare again its peers?The deal's valuation.How does it score in our quant driven Smartkarma ECM Framework?We would like to thank Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA for his valuable input.

Banpu Power IPO: Stable Income Streams, Moderate Growth, but Fair Valuation

Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited mines for coal and other minerals. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal, and have expertise in open-pit and underground coal mining operations, as well as coal-fired power generation.  Banpu PCL has business bases in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, China, Australia and Mongolia.

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Banpu Public (BANPU TB)

Playing the OPEC Deal

Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the...

Emad Mostaque

Energy the Strongest Sector in October on Oil & Coal Price Swings

Singapore’s Energy Sector was the strongest of Singapore’s stock Sectors in October, with a 10.4% market capitalisation weighted total return on...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Rabble Rousers (Episode 2): The Hardest Dots To Connect

The Vongkusolkij family of Mitr Phol Group boasts market leadership in not one but two very distinct industries: sugar and coal (Banpu), and have...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Geo Energy Resources Led Upstream Coal Plays in 2016 YTD

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy & Resources.Geo...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Banpu Power IPO: Stable Income Streams, Moderate Growth, but Fair Valuation

Banpu Power PCL (BPP TB), the utility subsidiary of Banpu Public Co Ltd (BANPU TB), is currently raising US$330-390m to pay down debt and fund...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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