Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Chinese e-commerce is having a solid month with most names up 30% in June. Yet this seems more a dead-cat-bounce than a change in direction of the share price momentum.</li>
<li>While there’s plenty of additional downside to big e-commerce players in e-commerce, smaller ones such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a> has limited down side with shares trading near 1.0x P/B multiple.   </li>
<li>Meanwhile <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda-network-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (9878 HK)</a> is yet to experience the post IPO sell-off and trading at expensive multiples. This raises an opportunity for a Long Bozun Short Huitongda trade.</li>
</ul>


Chinese e-commerce is having a solid month with most names up 30% in June. Yet this seems more a dead-cat-bounce than a change in direction of the share price momentum.
While there’s plenty of additional downside to big e-commerce players in e-commerce, smaller ones such as Baozun Inc. (BZUN US) has limited down side with shares trading near 1.0x P/B multiple.   
Meanwhile Huitongda (9878 HK) is yet to experience the post IPO sell-off and trading at expensive multiples. This raises an opportunity for a Long Bozun Short Huitongda trade.


China E-Commerce Pair Trade: Long Baozun Short Huitongda

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> has launched an HKEx dual-primary listing to raise $150-200 million. The H Shares will be priced on 14 April and listed on 22 April.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-dual-primary-listing-a-question-of-judgment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:68266" rel="noopener">Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: A Question of Judgment</a>, we stated that while a loss-making tech name is not everybody's cup of tea, Zhihu has resilient performance and an undemanding valuation.  </li>
<li>In this note, we will look at Zhihu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Zhihu pricing its H-shares at a discount of 3-4% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.</li>
</ul>



Zhihu Technology (ZH US) has launched an HKEx dual-primary listing to raise $150-200 million. The H Shares will be priced on 14 April and listed on 22 April.
In Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: A Question of Judgment, we stated that while a loss-making tech name is not everybody's cup of tea, Zhihu has resilient performance and an undemanding valuation.  
In this note, we will look at Zhihu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Zhihu pricing its H-shares at a discount of 3-4% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.


Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Weibo plans to raise around US$470m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. </li>
<li>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weibo-secondary-listing-needs-to-come-at-a-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Weibo Secondary Offering - Needs to come at a discount</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the deal pricing and structure.</li>
</ul>


Weibo plans to raise around US$470m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. 
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our previous note, Weibo Secondary Offering - Needs to come at a discount.
In this note, we'll talk about the deal pricing and structure.


Weibo Secondary Listing - Going Down the Autohome Route

iClick Interactive Asia Group / Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a> is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement.On 18 September, iClick announced a second non-binding privatisation proposal from Infinity Equity Management. The bid of $7.50 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 32.7% to the undisturbed price of $5.65 (on 23 September prior to the first proposal from PAG and Oasis). As a reminder, on 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management of $6.75 in cash per ADS. Infinity’s offer represents an 11.1% bump to the offer from PAG and Oasis.  As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Infinity has not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a>. Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. Borrowing a page from PAG and Oasis’ playbook, Infinity’s letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “other than management owned shares and those existing shareholders of the Company who elect to roll over.” The wording suggests that Infinity is vying with PAG and Oasis to get the upper hand in discussions with the co-founders and Baozun. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iclick-s-privatisation-bid-from-pag-and-oasis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58109" rel="noopener">IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis</a>, we stated that the PAG and Oasis offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We also noted that the PAG and Oasis offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities.<div class="content-highlight">While we did not expect a competing bid, Infinity’s offer while providing a bump to PAG and Oasis' offer still leaves minorities short-changed. Nevertheless, the emergence of two bidders suggests that there is a decent chance of another bidding round. At the last close of $6.50 per ADS, the gross spread to the Infinity offer price is 15.4%.  </div>

iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US) is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to Tencent (700 HK) in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement.On 18 September, iClick announced a second non-binding privatisation proposal from Infinity Equity Management. The bid of $7.50 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 32.7% to the undisturbed price of $5.65 (on 23 September prior to the first proposal from PAG and Oasis). As a reminder, on 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management of $6.75 in cash per ADS. Infinity’s offer represents an 11.1% bump to the offer from PAG and Oasis.  As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. Infinity has not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and Baozun Inc. (BZUN US). Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. Borrowing a page from PAG and Oasis’ playbook, Infinity’s letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “other than management owned shares and those existing shareholders of the Company who elect to roll over.” The wording suggests that Infinity is vying with PAG and Oasis to get the upper hand in discussions with the co-founders and Baozun. In IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis, we stated that the PAG and Oasis offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We also noted that the PAG and Oasis offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities.While we did not expect a competing bid, Infinity’s offer while providing a bump to PAG and Oasis' offer still leaves minorities short-changed. Nevertheless, the emergence of two bidders suggests that there is a decent chance of another bidding round. At the last close of $6.50 per ADS, the gross spread to the Infinity offer price is 15.4%.  

IClick’s Improved Privatisation Bid from a Second Suitor

China

Baozun Inc. provides e-commerce solutions. The Company offers IT solutions, ONLINE store operations, digital marketing, customer services, warehousing and fulfillment, and other services. Baozun serves customers in China covering apparel, appliances, electronics, home furnishings, food and health products, beauty and cosmetics, consumer goods, and other fields.

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Baozun (9991 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

China E-Commerce Pair Trade: Long Baozun Short Huitongda

Unlike most of the tech/e-commerce IPOs in the recent past, Huitongda is yet to experience a post-IPO sell-off due to low trading volumes and the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

In this note, we will look at Zhihu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Zhihu pricing its H-shares at a discount of 3-4% to its ADSs will be...

Arun George

Weibo Secondary Listing - Going Down the Autohome Route

Weibo plans to raise around US$470m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the deal pricing and structure.

Sumeet Singh

IClick’s Improved Privatisation Bid from a Second Suitor

iClick announced another privatisation proposal, this time from Infinity Equity at $7.50 in cash per ADS. The emergence of two bidders suggests...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

China E-Commerce Pair Trade: Long Baozun Short Huitongda

Unlike most of the tech/e-commerce IPOs in the recent past, Huitongda is yet to experience a post-IPO sell-off due to low trading volumes and the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

In this note, we will look at Zhihu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Zhihu pricing its H-shares at a discount of 3-4% to its ADSs will be...

Arun George

Weibo Secondary Listing - Going Down the Autohome Route

Weibo plans to raise around US$470m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the deal pricing and structure.

Sumeet Singh

IClick’s Improved Privatisation Bid from a Second Suitor

iClick announced another privatisation proposal, this time from Infinity Equity at $7.50 in cash per ADS. The emergence of two bidders suggests...

Arun George

Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views