European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The slowdown in the house market in the UK in the last 12 months has increased the likelihood of seeing more consolidation in the house-building sector.</li>
<li>Redrow's 24,565 plots have attracted a large buyer paying (with paper) a hefty premium to secure land. The land bank should cover house building production for just over four years. </li>
<li>I believe the deal will ultimately succeed, although the CMA may take a closer look thus delaying the deal beyond H2 2024. Gross spread is 3.4%.</li>
</ul>


The slowdown in the house market in the UK in the last 12 months has increased the likelihood of seeing more consolidation in the house-building sector.
Redrow's 24,565 plots have attracted a large buyer paying (with paper) a hefty premium to secure land. The land bank should cover house building production for just over four years. 
I believe the deal will ultimately succeed, although the CMA may take a closer look thus delaying the deal beyond H2 2024. Gross spread is 3.4%.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

<ul>
<li>FTSE-250 constituent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21858:1" rel="noopener">Vistry Group (VTY LN)</a> has agreed to buy rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/countryside-partnerships-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35428:1" rel="noopener">Countryside Partnerships (CSP LN)</a> in a recommended cash&amp;stock deal that values embattled Countryside at c.£1.25 billion (lower than previous offers).</li>
<li>Consideration is 1 CSP LN=0.255 VTY LN+60p, 9.1% premium, 7.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 1.3x P/Fwd BV, which seems cheap. The sector is pricing in many potential bad news.</li>
<li>Gross spread is +2.1%. It has only been negative during three days since the deal announcement. I would wait for the spread to become negative before taking a position. </li>
</ul>


FTSE-250 constituent Vistry Group (VTY LN) has agreed to buy rival Countryside Partnerships (CSP LN) in a recommended cash&amp;stock deal that values embattled Countryside at c.£1.25 billion (lower than previous offers).
Consideration is 1 CSP LN=0.255 VTY LN+60p, 9.1% premium, 7.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 1.3x P/Fwd BV, which seems cheap. The sector is pricing in many potential bad news.
Gross spread is +2.1%. It has only been negative during three days since the deal announcement. I would wait for the spread to become negative before taking a position. 


Vistry/Countryside Partnerships:  Agreed Offer

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

United Kingdom

Barratt Redrow PLC develops and builds properties. The Group's operations include the building of houses and housing complexes, general buildings, and civil engineering projects, as well as participation in urban renewal and the development of commercial properties. Barratt Redrow serves customers in the United Kingdom.

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Barratt Redrow (BTRW LN)

Barratt Redrow Plc, the Land Banker

The UK's housing market slowdown may lead to more consolidation in the house-building sector, as seen in this deal securing land for future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Vistry/Countryside Partnerships: Agreed Offer

Vistry agreed to acquire the entire share capital of Countryside in a stock swap transaction via scheme of arrangement, at a lower price than that...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Barratt Redrow Plc, the Land Banker

​The UK's housing market slowdown may lead to more consolidation in the house-building sector, as seen in this deal securing land for future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Vistry/Countryside Partnerships: Agreed Offer

Vistry agreed to acquire the entire share capital of Countryside in a stock swap transaction via scheme of arrangement, at a lower price than that...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

The UK's housing market slowdown may lead to more consolidation in the house-building sector, as seen in this deal securing land for future...