European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).</li>
<li>The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.</li>
<li>An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.</li>
</ul>


I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).
The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.
An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.


<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, 410 bps in the case of Volkswagen. Spreads in Sixt (45.7%) and Schroders (37%) are worth mentioning.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: BMW, Grifols, Roche, Telecom Italia (takeover interest), Volkswagen.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, 410 bps in the case of Volkswagen. Spreads in Sixt (45.7%) and Schroders (37%) are worth mentioning.
Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken.
Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: BMW, Grifols, Roche, Telecom Italia (takeover interest), Volkswagen.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, 450 bps in the case of Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, Investor AB.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: BMW, Roche, Schroders, Telecom Italia, Volkswagen.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, 450 bps in the case of Volkswagen.
Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, Investor AB.
Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: BMW, Roche, Schroders, Telecom Italia, Volkswagen.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January '22 Report

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, with some notorious exceptions such as BMW, Sixt and Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Grifols, Henkel, Handelsbanken, Investor AB.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: BMW, Roche, Schroders, Sixt, Telecom Italia, Volkswagen.</li>
</ul>


Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, with some notorious exceptions such as BMW, Sixt and Volkswagen.
Recommendations Long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Grifols, Henkel, Handelsbanken, Investor AB.
Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: BMW, Roche, Schroders, Sixt, Telecom Italia, Volkswagen.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December Report

<ul>
<li>
Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, with some notorious exceptions such as Volkswagen and Grifols.</li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Henkel, Fuchs Petrolub, Telecom Italia, Grifols, Handelsbanken, Investor AB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: BMW, Volkswagen, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>



Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, with some notorious exceptions such as Volkswagen and Grifols.
Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Henkel, Fuchs Petrolub, Telecom Italia, Grifols, Handelsbanken, Investor AB.
Recommendations long prefs / short ords: BMW, Volkswagen, Roche, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November Report

Germany

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) manufactures and sells cars and motorcycles. The Company offers convertible sports cars, sedans, and touring motorcycles with large displacement engines. BMW serves customers worldwide.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)

PAR3/VOW3/Potential Porsche IPO

The valuation of Porsche OpCo could reach €100 billion, vs. a market capitalization of c. €109.4 billion of VW. This is a feasible range...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February ‘22 Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, 410 bps in the case of Volkswagen. Spreads in Sixt (45.7%) and Schroders (37%) are...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January '22 Report

This report contains a table with a selection of European companies with non-voting shares and ordinary shares. Spreads have generally...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, with some notorious exceptions such as BMW, Sixt and Volkswagen. Roche seems the most...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November Report

Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, with some notorious exceptions such as Volkswagen and Grifols.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)