HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market is satisfied with BeiGene's 24Q1 performance. The major reason for BeiGene to narrow net loss in 24Q1 was based on strong product revenue growth rather than cost control. </li>
<li>Given the varying pace of product promotion/R&amp;D expenditure and the changes of product sales growth, BeiGene’s adjusted loss may achieve breakeven in a certain quarter of this year (e.g. 24Q4).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK) </a>is hard to cut costs largely. Sustained overall profitability may not be achieved until 2026 or 2027. But at least, we still see hope for a turnaround.</li>
</ul>


The market is satisfied with BeiGene's 24Q1 performance. The major reason for BeiGene to narrow net loss in 24Q1 was based on strong product revenue growth rather than cost control. 
Given the varying pace of product promotion/R&amp;D expenditure and the changes of product sales growth, BeiGene’s adjusted loss may achieve breakeven in a certain quarter of this year (e.g. 24Q4).

BeiGene (6160 HK) is hard to cut costs largely. Sustained overall profitability may not be achieved until 2026 or 2027. But at least, we still see hope for a turnaround.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Product sales continued beating expectation. In 1Q24, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$747mn (+18% QoQ, +82% YoY), representing 25.7% of our previous FY24 estimate.</li><li>Zanubrutinib (zanu) maintained strong sales momentum, with sales increasing 18% QoQ or 131% YoY to US$489mn.</li><li>The strong performance of zanu was driven by market share gain in CLL in the US and the expansion of reimbursement coverage in the EU. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Product sales continued beating expectation. In 1Q24, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$747mn (+18% QoQ, +82% YoY), representing 25.7% of our previous FY24 estimate.Zanubrutinib (zanu) maintained strong sales momentum, with sales increasing 18% QoQ or 131% YoY to US$489mn.The strong performance of zanu was driven by market share gain in CLL in the US and the expansion of reimbursement coverage in the EU. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Consistently Exceeding Expectations

<ul>
<li>Although people acknowledged BeiGene's performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven. </li>
<li>BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&amp;A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.</li>
<li>If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.</li>
</ul>


Although people acknowledged BeiGene's performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven. 
BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&amp;A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.
If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

<ul><li>Strong sales momentum of zanubrutinib eased market concerns. In 4Q23, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$631mn (+6% QoQ or +86% YoY).</li><li>Zanubrutinib (zanu) maintained strong sales momentum, with revenue increasing 15% QoQ or 135% YoY to US$413mn, mainly driven by market share gains in the US.</li><li>In 4Q23, zanu sales in the US increased 16% QoQ to US$313mn, contributing 76% of zanu’s global sales. I</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong sales momentum of zanubrutinib eased market concerns. In 4Q23, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$631mn (+6% QoQ or +86% YoY).Zanubrutinib (zanu) maintained strong sales momentum, with revenue increasing 15% QoQ or 135% YoY to US$413mn, mainly driven by market share gains in the US.In 4Q23, zanu sales in the US increased 16% QoQ to US$313mn, contributing 76% of zanu’s global sales. IContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Expect a Productive 2024 for Early Pipeline Assets

<ul>
<li>Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. </li>
<li>BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.</li>
<li>We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> is undervalued.   </li>
</ul>


Since Imbruvica's sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. 
BeiGene's recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China's biotech.
We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene's 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. BeiGene (6160 HK) is undervalued.   


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

BeiGene's high product revenue growth in 24Q1 narrowed net loss, with potential for breakeven in 24Q4.This is an affirmation for BeiGene....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Consistently Exceeding Expectations

Product sales continued beating expectation. In 1Q24, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$747mn (+18% QoQ, +82% YoY), representing 25.7% of...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

Due to quick pick-up of expenses, breakeven is more challenging. BeiGene hasn't proved its profitability. If it indeed has a plan to turn loss into...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Expect a Productive 2024 for Early Pipeline Assets

Strong sales momentum of zanubrutinib eased market concerns. In 4Q23, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$631mn (+6% QoQ or +86% YoY).

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

​BeiGene's high product revenue growth in 24Q1 narrowed net loss, with potential for breakeven in 24Q4.This is an affirmation for BeiGene....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Consistently Exceeding Expectations

Product sales continued beating expectation. In 1Q24, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$747mn (+18% QoQ, +82% YoY), representing 25.7% of...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

Due to quick pick-up of expenses, breakeven is more challenging. BeiGene hasn't proved its profitability. If it indeed has a plan to turn loss into...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Expect a Productive 2024 for Early Pipeline Assets

Strong sales momentum of zanubrutinib eased market concerns. In 4Q23, BeiGene recorded total product sales of US$631mn (+6% QoQ or +86% YoY).

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

BeiGene's sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment. But there’s no need for US to sanction China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

BeiGene's high product revenue growth in 24Q1 narrowed net loss, with potential for breakeven in 24Q4.This is an affirmation for BeiGene....

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - Pain Points Behind the High Growth

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) - 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns