HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Everest Medicines / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The drug list of 11th national VBP varieties has been released. Innovative drugs will not be included in VBP. Results of this VBP is expected to be implemented by 2025.</li>
<li>The performance improvement of CRO may not be reflected until 25Q3 or 25Q4 at the earliest, but the market may reflect this expectation in advance. Tigermed’s turning point is coming.</li>
<li>Everest Medicines’ Placing Price is expensive.The reduction of holdings by major shareholder CBC and Founder Fu Wei indicates that the Company has been overvalued. Valuation should be lower than BeiGene.</li>
</ul>


The drug list of 11th national VBP varieties has been released. Innovative drugs will not be included in VBP. Results of this VBP is expected to be implemented by 2025.
The performance improvement of CRO may not be reflected until 25Q3 or 25Q4 at the earliest, but the market may reflect this expectation in advance. Tigermed’s turning point is coming.
Everest Medicines’ Placing Price is expensive.The reduction of holdings by major shareholder CBC and Founder Fu Wei indicates that the Company has been overvalued. Valuation should be lower than BeiGene.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.27)-The Turning Point of Tigermed and CRO, Everest Medicines’ Placement

Nanjing Leads Biolabs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Even if the first indication of LBL-024 is approved, it wouldn't bring significant performance growth due to small market size for EP-NEC. Commercialization prospects of LBL-007 are also not optimistic.</li>
<li>Leads Biolabs’ CD3 pipelines would have higher hope to be successful. However, early-stage investors transferred their equity at a discount before IPO, which may reflect their concerns about the prospects.</li>
<li>Comfortable valuation is RMB3-4bn, which provides investors with a greater margin of safety.Especially in the context of current bull market of innovative drugs, biotech valuation has been full of bubble </li>
</ul>


Even if the first indication of LBL-024 is approved, it wouldn't bring significant performance growth due to small market size for EP-NEC. Commercialization prospects of LBL-007 are also not optimistic.
Leads Biolabs’ CD3 pipelines would have higher hope to be successful. However, early-stage investors transferred their equity at a discount before IPO, which may reflect their concerns about the prospects.
Comfortable valuation is RMB3-4bn, which provides investors with a greater margin of safety.Especially in the context of current bull market of innovative drugs, biotech valuation has been full of bubble 


Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Valuation and the Outlook

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 60.8% as of Jul 18th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -3.1ppt week-on-week, led by health care, information technology, financials and offset by real estate, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Livzon Pharmaceutical, Cosco Shipping Development, Beigene, China Railway Construction, CIMC, Innocare Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 60.8% as of Jul 18th.
The average A-H premium changed by -3.1ppt week-on-week, led by health care, information technology, financials and offset by real estate, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Livzon Pharmaceutical, Cosco Shipping Development, Beigene, China Railway Construction, CIMC, Innocare Pharma.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 18th): Livzon Pharmaceutical, Cosco Shipping Development, Beigene

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.</li>
<li>Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.</li>
<li>The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  </li>
</ul>


Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For the upcoming 11th national VBP, we think some core and big varieties could be included, involving companies such as Sunshine Lake Pharma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huadong-medicine-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18522:1" rel="noopener">Huadong Medicine</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, etc.</li>
<li>Anjoy’s IPO is fairly priced. Reasonable valuation range is 10-15x P/E.However, unfavorable factors have led us to take a conservative attitude towards the upside potential of stock price after IPO.</li>
<li>For Sunshine Lake Pharma's privatization of HEC Pharma, Composite Document was despatched. However, if investors truly understand "the essence" of HEC Pharma, they will be calm/rational about this absorption merger.</li>
</ul>


For the upcoming 11th national VBP, we think some core and big varieties could be included, involving companies such as Sunshine Lake Pharma, Huadong Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), etc.
Anjoy’s IPO is fairly priced. Reasonable valuation range is 10-15x P/E.However, unfavorable factors have led us to take a conservative attitude towards the upside potential of stock price after IPO.
For Sunshine Lake Pharma's privatization of HEC Pharma, Composite Document was despatched. However, if investors truly understand "the essence" of HEC Pharma, they will be calm/rational about this absorption merger.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.6)- Anjoy’s IPO Debut, HEC CJ Pharma's Merger with Sunshine Lake Pharma

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.27)-The Turning Point of Tigermed and CRO, Everest Medicines’ Placement

11th national VBP starts.Tigermed's fundamental turning point may occur this year due to investment income pickup.Everest Medicines' Placing Price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Valuation and the Outlook

Leads Biolabs’ IPO debut benefit from the current bull market sentiment for innovative drugs in HK market.But the reduction of holdings by early...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 18th): Livzon Pharmaceutical, Cosco Shipping Development, Beigene

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Livzon Pharmaceutical, Cosco Shipping Development, Beigene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

The Placing price of HK$68.6 has priced in successful licensing deal of APG-2575. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation. Biotech sector...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.6)- Anjoy’s IPO Debut, HEC CJ Pharma's Merger with Sunshine Lake Pharma

11th VBP may include big variety of Sunshine Lake Pharma/Huadong/Hansoh. Anjoy's IPO is fairly priced but shares upside is limited.HEC Pharma's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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