Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

PICC Property & Casualty H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes will be confirmed later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our final index change expectations and updated flow estimates for the upcoming index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY).</li><li>The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn, representing 69% of our previous FY24 estimate.</li><li>In 3Q24, sales of zanubrutinib (Zanu) increased 8% QoQ or 93% YoY to US$690mn. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY).The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn, representing 69% of our previous FY24 estimate.In 3Q24, sales of zanubrutinib (Zanu) increased 8% QoQ or 93% YoY to US$690mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Growing Non-GAAP Profit

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>BRUKINSA QoQ growth slowed down to single digit in 24Q3, thus dragging down the overall product revenue growth.However, such QoQ growth and market share growth were still higher than Imbruvica/Calquence. </li>
<li>BRUKINSA’s full-year revenue is expected to reach US$2.5 billion. Due to lower 24Q3 product revenue growth, we adjusted our 2024 forecast - Full year revenue would reach about US$3.7 billion.</li>
<li>BeiGene's performance in 24Q1-Q3 is still on track. Peak sales of BRUKINSA + tislelizumab is about US$5.5 billion. Reasonable market value range for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd-1c8ba4ff-edc5-43c3-b3fe-c3e4230f1c53" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40395:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a> is US$18.5-27.5 billion. </li>
</ul>


BRUKINSA QoQ growth slowed down to single digit in 24Q3, thus dragging down the overall product revenue growth.However, such QoQ growth and market share growth were still higher than Imbruvica/Calquence. 
BRUKINSA’s full-year revenue is expected to reach US$2.5 billion. Due to lower 24Q3 product revenue growth, we adjusted our 2024 forecast - Full year revenue would reach about US$3.7 billion.
BeiGene's performance in 24Q1-Q3 is still on track. Peak sales of BRUKINSA + tislelizumab is about US$5.5 billion. Reasonable market value range for BeiGene is US$18.5-27.5 billion. 


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

Event-Driven

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are several ways for pharmaceutical companies to commercialize drugs. We analyzed the advantages and disadvantages and ranked them accordingly. Among them, out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst choice.</li>
<li>After 5-6 years of commercialization, China Biotech have reached the critical point of verifying the feasibility of business models. However, some companies are falling behind. We listed them below.</li>
<li>After the failure of China TCM’s privatization, CNPGC can choose to launch another privatization after 12 months. There’re also other methods to address the horizontal competition issue with Taiji Group.</li>
</ul>


There are several ways for pharmaceutical companies to commercialize drugs. We analyzed the advantages and disadvantages and ranked them accordingly. Among them, out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst choice.
After 5-6 years of commercialization, China Biotech have reached the critical point of verifying the feasibility of business models. However, some companies are falling behind. We listed them below.
After the failure of China TCM’s privatization, CNPGC can choose to launch another privatization after 12 months. There’re also other methods to address the horizontal competition issue with Taiji Group.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10)-Biotech Model Validation, CNPGC Need to Fulfill Commitment to Taiji

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alteogen has signed an exclusive license agreement with Daiichi Sankyo to develop and commercialize a subcutaneous version of Enhertu. Volpara won $7.3M contract from the U.S. Defense Health Agency.</li>
<li>Santen Pharmaceutical has rolled out Rhopressa ophthalmic solution in South Korea for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.</li>
<li>Sun Pharmaceutical’s launch of alopecia drug Leqselvi in the U.S. will be delayed due to litigation with Incyte. Recently, a U.S. District Court decided to grant a preliminary injunction.</li>
</ul>


Alteogen has signed an exclusive license agreement with Daiichi Sankyo to develop and commercialize a subcutaneous version of Enhertu. Volpara won $7.3M contract from the U.S. Defense Health Agency.
Santen Pharmaceutical has rolled out Rhopressa ophthalmic solution in South Korea for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.
Sun Pharmaceutical’s launch of alopecia drug Leqselvi in the U.S. will be delayed due to litigation with Incyte. Recently, a U.S. District Court decided to grant a preliminary injunction.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 10)- Alteogen, Santen Pharmaceutical, Beigene, Sun Pharmaceutical

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Our high conviction ADD PICC Property (2328 HK) could outperform our high conviction DEL Longfor (960 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Growing Non-GAAP Profit

Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY). The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn,...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

BRUKINSA's QoQ growth slowed in 24Q3, but still outperformed peers.Full-year revenue forecast adjusted to $3.7 billion.Peak sales projected at...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10)-Biotech Model Validation, CNPGC Need to Fulfill Commitment to Taiji

Out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst option. China Biotech at a critical point in verifying business models. CNPGC has other methods to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 10)- Alteogen, Santen Pharmaceutical, Beigene, Sun Pharmaceutical

Alteogen partners with Daiichi Sankyo for Enhertu, Volpara secures $7.3M contract, Santen launches Rhopressa in South Korea, Sun Pharma's Leqselvi...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec 24: Time for a LONG-SHORT Trade

Our high conviction ADD PICC Property (2328 HK) could outperform our high conviction DEL Longfor (960 HK) over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BeiGene (BGNE US) - Growing Non-GAAP Profit

Strong product sales. In 3Q24, BeiGene recorded product sales of US$993mn (+8% QoQ, +67% YoY). The 9M24 total product sales reached US$2.66bn,...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

​BRUKINSA's QoQ growth slowed in 24Q3, but still outperformed peers.Full-year revenue forecast adjusted to $3.7 billion.Peak sales projected at...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10)-Biotech Model Validation, CNPGC Need to Fulfill Commitment to Taiji

Out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst option. China Biotech at a critical point in verifying business models. CNPGC has other methods to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 10)- Alteogen, Santen Pharmaceutical, Beigene, Sun Pharmaceutical

​Alteogen partners with Daiichi Sankyo for Enhertu, Volpara secures $7.3M contract, Santen launches Rhopressa in South Korea, Sun Pharma's Leqselvi...

Tina Banerjee

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q3 - Things Are on Track Despite BRUKINSA’s Disappointing QoQ Growth

BRUKINSA's QoQ growth slowed in 24Q3, but still outperformed peers.Full-year revenue forecast adjusted to $3.7 billion.Peak sales projected at...

Alteogen partners with Daiichi Sankyo for Enhertu, Volpara secures $7.3M contract, Santen launches Rhopressa in South Korea, Sun Pharma's Leqselvi...