Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> are high probability deletions in September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion.</li>
<li>The second add could be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> if it passes the velocity test. If not, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> will be added.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.</li>
</ul>



Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are high probability deletions in September, while Trip.com (9961 HK) is a high probability inclusion.
The second add could be BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) if it passes the velocity test. If not, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) will be added.
With the exception of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BeiGene maintained strong product sales in 23H1 and its net loss continued to narrow. This means that BeiGene has realized the cost control problem and entered a healthy growth phase.</li>
<li>Our revenue forecast indicates BeiGene is approaching the minimum threshold for turning losses into profits. A more likely scenario is revenue need to reach over US$4 billion to be breakeven</li>
<li>However, regardless of the calculation, BeiGene ‘s valuation is still unreasonably high. Its potential/certainty is nowhere near that of Alnylam. Maintaining sustained high growth is not easy because "accidents" remain.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene maintained strong product sales in 23H1 and its net loss continued to narrow. This means that BeiGene has realized the cost control problem and entered a healthy growth phase.
Our revenue forecast indicates BeiGene is approaching the minimum threshold for turning losses into profits. A more likely scenario is revenue need to reach over US$4 billion to be breakeven
However, regardless of the calculation, BeiGene ‘s valuation is still unreasonably high. Its potential/certainty is nowhere near that of Alnylam. Maintaining sustained high growth is not easy because "accidents" remain.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Strong sales in 2Q23 driven by zanubrutinib’s US sales ramp-up. In 2Q23, BeiGene recorded US$554mn product sales (+35% QoQ or +82% YoY).</li><li>Zanubrutinib (zanu) maintained a strong sales momentum, with sales revenue increasing 46% QoQ or 139% YoY to US$308mn in 2Q23 (accelerated from the +20% QoQ rate in 1Q23), mainly driven by the growth in the US. Zanu sales in the US increased by 61% QoQ to US$234mn in 2Q23 (accelerated from +11% QoQ in 1Q23), mainly due to the accelerated adoption among CLL/SLL patients, in our view.</li><li>The sales in overseas markets other than the US grew by 47% QoQ to US$36mn, while sales in China remained stable on a quarterly basis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong sales in 2Q23 driven by zanubrutinib’s US sales ramp-up. In 2Q23, BeiGene recorded US$554mn product sales (+35% QoQ or +82% YoY).Zanubrutinib (zanu) maintained a strong sales momentum, with sales revenue increasing 46% QoQ or 139% YoY to US$308mn in 2Q23 (accelerated from the +20% QoQ rate in 1Q23), mainly driven by the growth in the US. Zanu sales in the US increased by 61% QoQ to US$234mn in 2Q23 (accelerated from +11% QoQ in 1Q23), mainly due to the accelerated adoption among CLL/SLL patients, in our view.The sales in overseas markets other than the US grew by 47% QoQ to US$36mn, while sales in China remained stable on a quarterly basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Product Sales Soared in 2Q with Improved Cost Efficiency

<ul>
<li>The growth of TIDES business slowed down, and revenue decreased QoQ despite increasing production capacity.As the main growth point of WuXi AppTec’s future performance, this is not a good signal.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies have been negotiating with other contract manufacturers so as to reduce reliance on WuXi AppTec.Let’s see the situation of new orders in following quarters.</li>
<li>WuXi AppTec’s performance recovery is closely related to the pace of Fed's interest rate cuts. From the perspective of growth outlook/macro environment/geopolitical conflicts, WuXi AppTec is still in "dangerous period".</li>
</ul>


The growth of TIDES business slowed down, and revenue decreased QoQ despite increasing production capacity.As the main growth point of WuXi AppTec’s future performance, this is not a good signal.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies have been negotiating with other contract manufacturers so as to reduce reliance on WuXi AppTec.Let’s see the situation of new orders in following quarters.
WuXi AppTec’s performance recovery is closely related to the pace of Fed's interest rate cuts. From the perspective of growth outlook/macro environment/geopolitical conflicts, WuXi AppTec is still in "dangerous period".


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

<ul><li>BGNE hosted its 2023 R&amp;D Day on 18 Jul. The Company highlighted 3 major synergetic assets in haematology, Brukinsa (BTKi), sonrotoclax (BCL2i) and BGB11673 (BTK CDAC).</li><li>With superior efficacy and safety shown in H2H and multiple pivotal trials, Brukinsa has been widely approved globally for multiple indications, including CLL/SLL, WM, MCL, MZL and potentially FL, and is the backbone of the Company’s haematology franchise.</li><li>Ph3 trial of sonrotoclax to be initiated. Sonrotoclax is a potential BIC BCL2 inhibitor with differentiated profiles. In the Ph1/2 study, in 56 efficacy evaluable treatment-naïve (TN) CLL/SLL patients receiving sonrotoclax + Brukinsa, the ORR reached 100% (CR 26.8%), and in the patients with at least 3 postbaseline response assessments (n=37), the CR reached 35%. I</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BGNE hosted its 2023 R&amp;D Day on 18 Jul. The Company highlighted 3 major synergetic assets in haematology, Brukinsa (BTKi), sonrotoclax (BCL2i) and BGB11673 (BTK CDAC).With superior efficacy and safety shown in H2H and multiple pivotal trials, Brukinsa has been widely approved globally for multiple indications, including CLL/SLL, WM, MCL, MZL and potentially FL, and is the backbone of the Company’s haematology franchise.Ph3 trial of sonrotoclax to be initiated. Sonrotoclax is a potential BIC BCL2 inhibitor with differentiated profiles. In the Ph1/2 study, in 56 efficacy evaluable treatment-naïve (TN) CLL/SLL patients receiving sonrotoclax + Brukinsa, the ORR reached 100% (CR 26.8%), and in the patients with at least 3 postbaseline response assessments (n=37), the CR reached 35%. IContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Solidifying Leadership in Haematology with Three Synergistic BIC Molecules

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

BeiGene's financial performance starts to become healthier in 23H1. As BeiGene approaches breakeven, it's particularly crucial to avoid "accidents"...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Product Sales Soared in 2Q with Improved Cost Efficiency

Strong sales in 2Q23 driven by zanubrutinib’s US sales ramp-up. In 2Q23, BeiGene recorded US$554mn product sales (+35% QoQ or +82% YoY).

CMB International

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

House Committee advances Bill to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio, which then needs to be passed by a full vote in House/Senate and finally signed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Solidifying Leadership in Haematology with Three Synergistic BIC Molecules

BGNE hosted its 2023 R&D Day on 18 Jul. The Company highlighted 3 major synergetic assets in haematology, Brukinsa (BTKi), sonrotoclax (BCL2i) and...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth

BeiGene's financial performance starts to become healthier in 23H1. As BeiGene approaches breakeven, it's particularly crucial to avoid "accidents"...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Product Sales Soared in 2Q with Improved Cost Efficiency

Strong sales in 2Q23 driven by zanubrutinib’s US sales ramp-up. In 2Q23, BeiGene recorded US$554mn product sales (+35% QoQ or +82% YoY).

CMB International

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

House Committee advances Bill to restrict WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio, which then needs to be passed by a full vote in House/Senate and finally signed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Solidifying Leadership in Haematology with Three Synergistic BIC Molecules

BGNE hosted its 2023 R&D Day on 18 Jul. The Company highlighted 3 major synergetic assets in haematology, Brukinsa (BTKi), sonrotoclax (BCL2i) and...

CMB International

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23H1 - "Accidents" Behind the Strong Growth