Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<div><p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p></div><div><p>As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p></div><div><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p></div><div><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-phip-updates-user-growth-has-been-slowing-down-post-covid" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-updated-forecasts-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, I’ll talk about the early inclusion in the indices.</p></div>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation
In this note, I’ll talk about the early inclusion in the indices.

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Index Implications, MSCI, FTSE and HSI Indices

Equity Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p></div><div><p>As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p></div><div><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p></div><div><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-phip-updates-user-growth-has-been-slowing-down-post-covid" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, I’ll cover the updated earnings and forecast post the PHIP filing.</p></div>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of nine months ended Sep 2020, it had 305m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 86 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 769m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB204.1bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - User Growth Has Been Slowing Down Post COVID
In this note, I’ll cover the updated earnings and forecast post the PHIP filing.

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>The Chinese short video and live streaming platform, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a>  has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company aims to raise up to US$5bn at a rumoured valuation of around US$50-60bn.</p><p>In our previous insights on the company’s IPO, we examined the company’s business model, segments, financials and outlook. Refer the following extract from our previous insight:</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><em>As we discussed in our previous insights, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects. Though the company’s live streaming revenues show a slight decline in 3Q2020 compared to the same quarter last year, as the company stated we believe it was due to changes in the customer spending habits. As we highlighted in our previous insights, it seems that the company’s monetisation strategy has worked in favour where revenues from online marketing services and other services have grown rapidly during the period. The huge increase in the e-commerce GMV in fact proves that the company’s e-commerce business is rapidly expanding thereby contributing to the growth in the company’s top line. Our cost and margin analysis also shows that Kuaishou should start generating stable profits over the next few quarters</em></p></div><p>Kuaishou’s closest peer is ByteDance-owned Douyin, however, given Douyin’s financial statements are not publicly available and the company is not listed, we would be comparing the company against its peer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/momo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26075:1" rel="noopener">Momo Inc (MOMO US)</a> . (Only the financials of Momo platform).</p>

The Chinese short video and live streaming platform, Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)  has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company aims to raise up to US$5bn at a rumoured valuation of around US$50-60bn.In our previous insights on the company’s IPO, we examined the company’s business model, segments, financials and outlook. Refer the following extract from our previous insight:As we discussed in our previous insights, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects. Though the company’s live streaming revenues show a slight decline in 3Q2020 compared to the same quarter last year, as the company stated we believe it was due to changes in the customer spending habits. As we highlighted in our previous insights, it seems that the company’s monetisation strategy has worked in favour where revenues from online marketing services and other services have grown rapidly during the period. The huge increase in the e-commerce GMV in fact proves that the company’s e-commerce business is rapidly expanding thereby contributing to the growth in the company’s top line. Our cost and margin analysis also shows that Kuaishou should start generating stable profits over the next few quartersKuaishou’s closest peer is ByteDance-owned Douyin, however, given Douyin’s financial statements are not publicly available and the company is not listed, we would be comparing the company against its peer Momo Inc (MOMO US) . (Only the financials of Momo platform).

Kuaishou IPO: Broadly Outperforming Peers; Profits Should Materialise as Sales and Marketing Falls

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology / Private Capital Markets

<p>Kuaishou Technology filed the PHIP papers last week as it is getting ready for an IPO in the next few weeks. The company plans to raise at least <strong>$5 billion</strong> that could value the company at about <strong>$60 billion.</strong> According to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kuaishou-ipo/chinas-kuaishou-hong-kong-ipo-could-value-firm-at-about-60bln-sources-idUSKBN29N09M" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters,</a> the exact valuation of the company will be determined after the meetings with the investors this week but the valuation could change before the deal is launched.</p><p>Our base case revenue estimate for the company is 58,249 million RMB in 2020 (up 48.9% YoY) and 79,463 million RMB in 2021 (up 36.4% YoY). If the IPO is priced at $60 billion in valuation, this would suggest P/S of 6.7x (2020E) and 4.9x (2021E), using our sales estimates.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>There are some important highlights in 3Q 2020 results of Kuaishou Technology:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Although the company's revenue increased by 50.7% YoY in 3Q 2020,</strong><strong>the revenue decline of 1.6% by the Live Streaming business in 3Q 2020 is very concerning. </strong>
</li>
<li>Despite the fact that the company's Live Streaming sales declined in 3Q 2020, its other business units including Online Marketing and Other Services experienced explosive growth. </li>
<li><strong>Despite the negative operating profits in 3Q 2020, the company was able to make significant improvements in operating margins (from -29.9% in 1H 2020 to -9.0% in 3Q 2020) without sacrificing revenue growth. </strong></li>
</ul>
</div>

Kuaishou Technology filed the PHIP papers last week as it is getting ready for an IPO in the next few weeks. The company plans to raise at least $5 billion that could value the company at about $60 billion. According to Reuters, the exact valuation of the company will be determined after the meetings with the investors this week but the valuation could change before the deal is launched.Our base case revenue estimate for the company is 58,249 million RMB in 2020 (up 48.9% YoY) and 79,463 million RMB in 2021 (up 36.4% YoY). If the IPO is priced at $60 billion in valuation, this would suggest P/S of 6.7x (2020E) and 4.9x (2021E), using our sales estimates.
There are some important highlights in 3Q 2020 results of Kuaishou Technology:


Although the company's revenue increased by 50.7% YoY in 3Q 2020,the revenue decline of 1.6% by the Live Streaming business in 3Q 2020 is very concerning. 

Despite the fact that the company's Live Streaming sales declined in 3Q 2020, its other business units including Online Marketing and Other Services experienced explosive growth. 
Despite the negative operating profits in 3Q 2020, the company was able to make significant improvements in operating margins (from -29.9% in 1H 2020 to -9.0% in 3Q 2020) without sacrificing revenue growth. 



Kuaishou IPO PHIP Update & Income Statement Forecast

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou has started pre-marketing for Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion. Kuaishou which was previously seeking a $50 billion valuation is now being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 billion, according to <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1070003/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese media reports</a>. Potential IPO investors seem to be more sanguine and according to these same reports are said to be a seeking a $60-70 billion valuation. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-thrill-seekers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47104" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46787" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look </a>for the latest set of results. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that a $65 billion valuation is justifiable (the low-end of the rumoured syndicate range) but would be hesitant to participate at a higher valuation.</p></div>
</div>


Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou has started pre-marketing for Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion. Kuaishou which was previously seeking a $50 billion valuation is now being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 billion, according to Chinese media reports. Potential IPO investors seem to be more sanguine and according to these same reports are said to be a seeking a $60-70 billion valuation. 
In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. 
In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look for the latest set of results. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that a $65 billion valuation is justifiable (the low-end of the rumoured syndicate range) but would be hesitant to participate at a higher valuation.


Kuaishou IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Index Implications, MSCI, FTSE and HSI Indices

Kuaishou Technology is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Updated Forecasts and Valuation

Kuaishou Technology is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou IPO: Broadly Outperforming Peers; Profits Should Materialise as Sales and Marketing Falls

In this insight, we compare Kuaishou's financials and key matrices against its peer Momo Inc. (Only the financials of Momo platform).

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Kuaishou IPO PHIP Update & Income Statement Forecast

Kuaishou Technology was able to make significant improvements in operating margins (from -29.9% in 1H 2020 to -9.0% in 3Q 2020) without sacrificing...

Douglas Kim

Kuaishou IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

Kuaishou is being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 bn, according to Chinese media reports. We think that a $65 bn valuation is justifiable but...

Arun George

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