HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.</li>
<li>If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know "when to participate in this story" and "when to exit".</li>
<li>Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.</li>
</ul>


It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.
If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know "when to participate in this story" and "when to exit".
Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine’s performance declined in 22H1 due to the pandemic, which led to the short supply of the core products and a serious setback of production/operation.</li>
<li>The recovery of the Company’s performance in 2022H2 depends not only on the alleviation of the pandemic, but also on the sustainability of the demand for non-rigid medical products.</li>
<li>In the long run, whether the overseas sales except those in Hong Kong and the Mainland can have breakthrough is the main supporting logic for raising the valuation.</li>
</ul>


Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine’s performance declined in 22H1 due to the pandemic, which led to the short supply of the core products and a serious setback of production/operation.
The recovery of the Company’s performance in 2022H2 depends not only on the alleviation of the pandemic, but also on the sustainability of the demand for non-rigid medical products.
In the long run, whether the overseas sales except those in Hong Kong and the Mainland can have breakthrough is the main supporting logic for raising the valuation.


Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine (3613.HK) 22H1 - Performance Recovery in 22H2 Is Uncertain

Beijing Tongrentang Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.</li>
<li>Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.</li>
<li>The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.
Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.
The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.


Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>In terms of the business model,the uniqueness and scarcity of Pien Tze Huang keep the market demand at high level,supporting its strong ability to raise prices and establish high moat.</li>
<li>The concerns on single product risk, scare raw materials and inadequate production capacity would cast a shadow over the Company’ future development.</li>
<li>The breakthrough point lies in whether the Company can make use of the unique advantages generated from "Pien Tze Huang" series to cultivate a second strong growth point in time.</li>
</ul>


In terms of the business model,the uniqueness and scarcity of Pien Tze Huang keep the market demand at high level,supporting its strong ability to raise prices and establish high moat.
The concerns on single product risk, scare raw materials and inadequate production capacity would cast a shadow over the Company’ future development.
The breakthrough point lies in whether the Company can make use of the unique advantages generated from "Pien Tze Huang" series to cultivate a second strong growth point in time.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

<ul>
<li>The high price of EJiao discouraged consumers, leading to increasing inventory backlog in the distribution channel and reduction in payment collection, which finally resulted in Dong-E-E-Jiao’s net loss in 2019.</li>
<li>Although the performance has showed a recovery trend since 2020,concerns on raw material shortage, low inventory turnover, single product structure, high selling expense ratio and fierce market competition still remain.</li>
<li>There is still a long way to go for the Company to get back to peak, so we are conservative about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dong-e-e-jiaoco-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8470:1" rel="noopener">Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)</a>’s outlook.</li>
</ul>


The high price of EJiao discouraged consumers, leading to increasing inventory backlog in the distribution channel and reduction in payment collection, which finally resulted in Dong-E-E-Jiao’s net loss in 2019.
Although the performance has showed a recovery trend since 2020,concerns on raw material shortage, low inventory turnover, single product structure, high selling expense ratio and fierce market competition still remain.
There is still a long way to go for the Company to get back to peak, so we are conservative about Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)’s outlook.


Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) - Could the New Chairman Turn Things Around?

China

Beijing Tongrentang Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets Chinese traditional medicines and medicinal wines.  The Company also operates pharmaceutical retail businesses and provides consulting services.

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Beijing Tongrentang Co A (600085 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

Although unwilling, biotech will face the harshest truth in 2023; Import substitution isn't good logic. Investors should know "when to join" &...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine (3613.HK) 22H1 - Performance Recovery in 22H2 Is Uncertain

H2 performance recovery depends not only on the control of pandemic but also the sustainability of demand for non-rigid medical products.Overseas...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

We analyzed the business model of Pien Tze Huang, which is mainly due to its uniqueness and scarcity that build high moat. But it still has to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) - Could the New Chairman Turn Things Around?

The raw material (donkey skin) shortage is a big concern for Dong-E-E-Jiao's future development, together with low inventory turnover,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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