HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.</li>
<li>The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.</li>
<li>Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.
The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.
Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.


Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fujian will lead 27 provinces to launch the centralized procurement of electrophysiological medical consumables. Its scale is comparable to the national VBP. Unlike many people's optimism, we see potential concerns.</li>
<li>The centralized procurement of orthodontic materials and brackets led by Shaanxi Province has made new progress, which is beyond the expectations of many people since invisible braces are included.</li>
<li>We analyzed China HPV market potential and valuation logic. We expected that the valuation of related companies would have a significant downward space ahead.</li>
</ul>


Fujian will lead 27 provinces to launch the centralized procurement of electrophysiological medical consumables. Its scale is comparable to the national VBP. Unlike many people's optimism, we see potential concerns.
The centralized procurement of orthodontic materials and brackets led by Shaanxi Province has made new progress, which is beyond the expectations of many people since invisible braces are included.
We analyzed China HPV market potential and valuation logic. We expected that the valuation of related companies would have a significant downward space ahead.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.21) - Electrophysiology VBP; Orthodontics VBP New Progress; HPV Vaccine

<ul>
<li>The rapid spread of monkeypox to different groups of people in different countries has alarmed scientists, governments and health officers, but monkeypox virus is relatively mild in severity and infectivity.</li>
<li>China will bear the pressure of imported cases. But due to China’s zero-covid policy and long-term emergency reserve of smallpox vaccine, there's no need to panic at the current stage.</li>
<li>There're investment opportunities, but it’s difficult for related companies to replicate the growth story of COVID-19 products. The market's reaction to monkeypox is overdone. Investors are recommended to be rational.  </li>
</ul>


The rapid spread of monkeypox to different groups of people in different countries has alarmed scientists, governments and health officers, but monkeypox virus is relatively mild in severity and infectivity.
China will bear the pressure of imported cases. But due to China’s zero-covid policy and long-term emergency reserve of smallpox vaccine, there's no need to panic at the current stage.
There're investment opportunities, but it’s difficult for related companies to replicate the growth story of COVID-19 products. The market's reaction to monkeypox is overdone. Investors are recommended to be rational.  


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors.  </li>
<li>From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund weights have fallen to just 1.14% and average underweights have plunged towards their lowest level on record.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> has led the declines, as sentiment towards the China A-Share Biotechnology sector looks fragile.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors.  
From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund weights have fallen to just 1.14% and average underweights have plunged towards their lowest level on record.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has led the declines, as sentiment towards the China A-Share Biotechnology sector looks fragile.


<ul>
<li>Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.</li>
<li>The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. </li>
<li>The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.</li>
</ul>


Under the current policy in China, any minor changes to vaccine doses require a series of clinical data support and registration changes. So, WHO’s recommendation won’t affect Zhifei’s short-term performance.
The increasing domestic competing HPV vaccines in the future would be a big threat to Zhifei’s agency business. Its self-developed products may not be strong enough to compensate. 
The performance in 2022 is expected to be solid before real challenge comes in 2024. The valuation logic and outlook won’t be brighten unless there’s new breakthrough in agency business.


Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

China

Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces enzyme linked immunodiagnostic reagents, colloidal gold rapid diagnostic reagents, vaccines, biochemical reagents, and other products. Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise also produces diagnostic equipment.

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)

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Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)

Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

Zhifei’s HPV vaccine will face real risk as competing products launch from 2024. The real potential of China HPV vaccine market is much lower than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.21) - Electrophysiology VBP; Orthodontics VBP New Progress; HPV Vaccine

Unlike others' optimism,we see potential concerns in electrophysiology VBP; Orthodontics VBP is beyond expectation since invisible braces are...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Monkeypox and Its Impact on China

Monkeypox's rapid spread raises concerns. China bears the pressure of imported cases, but it’s difficult to replicate the growth story of COVID-19...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China A-Shares: Biotechnology Exit

Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors. From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund...

Steven Holden

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - WHO's One-Dose HPV Vaccine Regimen & The Outlook

WHO’s recommendation on HPV vaccines is not the biggest risk of Zhifei and won't affect short-term performance, but the valuation logic...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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