Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

National Australia Bank / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.</li>
<li>Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.</li>
<li>Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.</li>
</ul>



National Australia Bank (NAB AU) is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.
Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.


EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. </li>
<li>Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.</li>
<li>The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.</li>
</ul>



Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.


EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cuscal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40209:1" rel="noopener">Cuscal (1229Z AU)</a> is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.</li>
<li>Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Cuscal (1229Z AU) is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.
Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and share our thoughts on valuation.


Cuscal IPO - Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a> IE has considered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">Mystate Ltd (MYS AU)</a>’s all-scrip merger offer in the best interests of the Auswide shareholders. However, the opinion comes with caveats.  </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Auswide shareholder and regulatory approvals (ACCC, Treasury). The scheme meeting is on 2 December.</li>
<li>Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for 18 December payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.6%/10.3%.  </li>
</ul>


The Auswide Bank (ABA AU) IE has considered Mystate Ltd (MYS AU)’s all-scrip merger offer in the best interests of the Auswide shareholders. However, the opinion comes with caveats.  
The offer is conditional on Auswide shareholder and regulatory approvals (ACCC, Treasury). The scheme meeting is on 2 December.
Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for 18 December payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.6%/10.3%.  


Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Constituent, float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$228m.</li>
<li>There are many stocks from the S&amp;P/ASX index family that will have same way or opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>



IDP Education (IEL AU) and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the June rebalance.
Constituent, float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$228m.
There are many stocks from the S&amp;P/ASX index family that will have same way or opposing flows from VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU). 


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

Australia

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited offers a variety of banking and other financial services, including first mortgage housing finance, retail and business banking, commercial finance, funds management, treasury and foreign exchange services, superannuation and trustee services. Bendigo also offers internet banking.

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Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU)

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...

Gaudenz Schneider

Cuscal IPO - Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here

Cuscal (1229Z AU) is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO. In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and...

Clarence Chu

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal

Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for the 18 December payment,...

Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

IDP Education and Lendlease Group will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index. Constituent, float and capping changes will result in 1...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

​National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

​Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...

Gaudenz Schneider

Cuscal IPO - Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here

Cuscal (1229Z AU) is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO. In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and...

Clarence Chu

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal

Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for the 18 December payment,...

Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

IDP Education and Lendlease Group will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index. Constituent, float and capping changes will result in 1...

Brian Freitas

National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...