Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We interact with our dealer network representing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a>  and Birla Opus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grasim-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:290:1" rel="noopener">Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)</a> dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.</li>
<li>Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.</li>
</ul>


We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.


Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Ajax Engineering Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajax-engineering-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44026:1" rel="noopener">Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN)</a> raised around US$145m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) raised around US$145m in its India IPO.
Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Ajax Engineering IPO Trading - Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand

<ul>
<li>The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.</li>
<li>Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.</li>
<li>Asian Paints' current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.</li>
</ul>


The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.
Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.
Asian Paints' current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Navigating Turbulence

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a>, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-heavy-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:460:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Heavy Electricals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, NSE Nifty Bank Index, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close tomorrow.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest inflows are Trent, Bharat Electronics, Canara Bank, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics and InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.</li>
<li>There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted. </li>
<li>All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.
There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted. 
All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.


Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

India

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins. The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and others.

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Berger Paints India (BRGR IN)

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

In this Insight, we interact with Paint Dealers to understand market dynamics; Birla Opus may gain short-term market share, while Asian Paints...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ajax Engineering IPO Trading - Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand

Ajax Engineering Limited raised around US$145m in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Navigating Turbulence

Q2FY24 was tough for the paint industry, with Asian Paints facing market share reduction due to size and macroeconomic factors, while Berger...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

The NIFTY50/NIFTY Next 50 Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of 27th September 2024. The final capping flows will be decided...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

In this Insight, we interact with Paint Dealers to understand market dynamics; Birla Opus may gain short-term market share, while Asian Paints...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ajax Engineering IPO Trading - Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand

Ajax Engineering Limited raised around US$145m in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Navigating Turbulence

​Q2FY24 was tough for the paint industry, with Asian Paints facing market share reduction due to size and macroeconomic factors, while Berger...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

The NIFTY50/NIFTY Next 50 Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of 27th September 2024. The final capping flows will be decided...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Q2FY24 was tough for the paint industry, with Asian Paints facing market share reduction due to size and macroeconomic factors, while Berger...