ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment. </li>
<li>The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.</li>
<li>2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance</li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment. 
The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.
2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Packaged Consumerism

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a> booked a solid set of results for 4Q2024, with margin improvements across its four major segments, but its modern retail supply chain under Big C stood out.</li>
<li>A call with Big C confirmed strong momentum behind SSSG, driven by its ongoing move into fresh food and private label, which are both outperforming overall growth.</li>
<li>Packaging, consumer, and healthcare &amp; technical supply chains are also seeing strong recovery, whilst valuations look attractive from a historical perspective. </li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker booked a solid set of results for 4Q2024, with margin improvements across its four major segments, but its modern retail supply chain under Big C stood out.
A call with Big C confirmed strong momentum behind SSSG, driven by its ongoing move into fresh food and private label, which are both outperforming overall growth.
Packaging, consumer, and healthcare &amp; technical supply chains are also seeing strong recovery, whilst valuations look attractive from a historical perspective. 


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Big C Recovery in Motion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024. </li>
<li>The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>'s packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive. </li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker (BJC TB) has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024. 
The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance. 

Berli Jucker's packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive. 


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Big C on the Turn

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 28th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods, Advanced Info Service, Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service, Cp Foods.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 28th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods, Advanced Info Service, Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service, Cp Foods.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 28th): Intouch, Airports of Thailand, PTT GlobalChem, CP Foods

Thailand

Berli Jucker PCL is a large Thai conglomerate whose business spans various industries. The Company's operations include the distribution and manufacturing of its own products plus contract distribution and manufacturing for other firms. BJC's core lines of business are packaging, consumer, healthcare, technical and other businesses.

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Berli Jucker (BJC TB)