CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on an unchanged target price of Bt9.95, implying an upside of 16% from the current share price. We derive our target price from a DCF-based valuation using a WACC of 6.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects</li>
<li>Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow</li>
<li>Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability</li>
</ul>
Interim: The 1Q21 results confirm that the AEC acquisition is value accretive and provides high upside potential. The revenue came in stronger than we assumed, while the gross margin was slightly lower, resulting in an unchanged profitability outlook.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on an unchanged target price of Bt9.95, implying an upside of 16% from the current share price. We derive our target price from a DCF-based valuation using a WACC of 6.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects
Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow
Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability

Interim: The 1Q21 results confirm that the AEC acquisition is value accretive and provides high upside potential. The revenue came in stronger than we assumed, while the gross margin was slightly lower, resulting in an unchanged profitability outlook.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

STI: Attractive Dividend Play with Further Upside

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on a target of Bt9.95 (previously Bt9.20), implying an upside of 22% from the current share price. We derive our target price from a DCF-based valuation using a WACC of 6.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects</li>
<li>Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow</li>
<li>Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability</li>
</ul>
Interim: Like the previous quarters, 4Q20 growth was largely due to the consolidation of AEC. Revenue was up by 123% YoY. Overall, the results confirm our expectations that the AEC acquisition is value accretive and provides high upside potential.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on a target of Bt9.95 (previously Bt9.20), implying an upside of 22% from the current share price. We derive our target price from a DCF-based valuation using a WACC of 6.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects
Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow
Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability

Interim: Like the previous quarters, 4Q20 growth was largely due to the consolidation of AEC. Revenue was up by 123% YoY. Overall, the results confirm our expectations that the AEC acquisition is value accretive and provides high upside potential.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

STI: Acquisition Pays off Immediately, Still Further Upside

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on a target of Bt9.20 (previously Bt10.10), implying an upside of 34% from the current share price. We derive our target price from a DCF-based valuation using a WACC of 6.4% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects</li>
<li>Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow</li>
<li>Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability</li>
</ul>
Interim: Like 2Q20, 3Q20 growth was largely due to the consolidation of AEC. Revenue was up by 162% YoY and 22% QoQ. Overall, the results confirm our expectations that the AEC acquisition is value accretive and provides high upside potential.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on a target of Bt9.20 (previously Bt10.10), implying an upside of 34% from the current share price. We derive our target price from a DCF-based valuation using a WACC of 6.4% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects
Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow
Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability

Interim: Like 2Q20, 3Q20 growth was largely due to the consolidation of AEC. Revenue was up by 162% YoY and 22% QoQ. Overall, the results confirm our expectations that the AEC acquisition is value accretive and provides high upside potential.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

STI: Acquisition Synergies Should Lead to Further Upside

We have a BUY recommendation on STI based on our target of Bt10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. With the consolidation of AEC, we change our valuation method from sum-of the-parts to a DCF-based valuation and use a WACC of 6.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects</li>
<li>Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow</li>
<li>Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability</li>
</ul>
Interim: Large-scale projects and the successful integration of AEC have driven strong 2Q20 results. We still believe that the market does not consider the benefits of the acquisition to the full extent, providing high upside potential.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

We have a BUY recommendation on STI based on our target of Bt10.10, implying an upside of 31% from the current share price. With the consolidation of AEC, we change our valuation method from sum-of the-parts to a DCF-based valuation and use a WACC of 6.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects
Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow
Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability

Interim: Large-scale projects and the successful integration of AEC have driven strong 2Q20 results. We still believe that the market does not consider the benefits of the acquisition to the full extent, providing high upside potential.
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY

We initiate coverage on STI with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt10.10, implying an upside of 29% from the current price. We derive our target price from a sum-of-the-parts approach and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects</li>
<li>Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow</li>
<li>Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability</li>
</ul>
Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

We initiate coverage on STI with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt10.10, implying an upside of 29% from the current price. We derive our target price from a sum-of-the-parts approach and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Recent acquisition gives access to government infrastructure projects
Major shareholder as a key strategic partner for deal flow
Backlog ensures strong near-term growth and revenue stability

Risks: Reliance on limited industries, delay in project completion, shortage of experienced personnel, and adverse regulatory changes.

STI: Solid Groundwork Laid for an Attractive Investment

Thailand

Berli Jucker Public Company Limited is a diversified company manufacturing, distributing, and servicing in packaging, consumer goods, healthcare, and technical supply chains. Its products include glass packaging, aluminum cans, plastic packaging, tissue papers, personal care products, and various food and beverages. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1882.

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Berli Jucker (BJC TB)

STI: Attractive Dividend Play with Further Upside

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on an unchanged target price of Bt9.95, implying an upside of 16% from the current share price.

A. Stotz Investment Research

STI: Acquisition Pays off Immediately, Still Further Upside

We maintain a BUY recommendation on STI based on a target of Bt9.95, implying an upside of 22%. We derive our target price from a DCF valuation...

A. Stotz Investment Research

STI: Acquisition Synergies Should Lead to Further Upside

We maintain our BUY recommendation on STI based on a lower target price of Bt9.20, implying an upside of 34%. We derive our target price from a DCF...

A. Stotz Investment Research

STI: Acquisition Benefits Are Not Fully Priced In, Strong BUY

We still believe that the market does not consider the benefits of the AEC acquisition to the full extent, providing high upside potential for STI.

A. Stotz Investment Research

STI: Solid Groundwork Laid for an Attractive Investment

We initiate coverage on STI with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt10.10, implying an upside of 29% from the current price. We...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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