Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Growth of low end driven by Pinduoduo</h2>
<p>The growth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> has spurred growth in China’s express market over the last two years, accounting for 60% or more of incremental growth in parcel volume in 2018. PDD’s emergence has boosted parcel volume growth, but this gift has come at a price: to win business from the merchants operating on PDD’s platform, express companies must offer rock-bottom pricing.</p>
<h2>Volume growth a nice gift, but it comes with a price</h2>
<p>PDD’s emergence offers strong volume growth, accompanied by downward pressure on pricing and margins. To combat these pressures, express companies must aggressively pursue parcel volume share in order to reduce unit costs (and thereby limit margin erosion). With most small express players squeezed out, we believe price competition among the remaining express firms is intensifying, with average parcel pricing down by 12-16% YoY in recent months.</p>
<h2>At high end of express &amp; logistics, less competition</h2>
<p>Away from intensifying competition at the low-end of the express sector, the high-end of China’s express segment features pockets of growth with muted competition. In time-definite (i.e., ‘overnight’) express, international express, supply chain management, and cold-chain logistics, providers tend to compete based on service levels, and their customers tend to be less price-sensitive than those at the low-end of the market. Underlying demand for these services is powered by a gradual ‘consumption upgrade’, helping merchants move high-value goods faster and more reliably compared to mainstream express products. We believe these segments offer shelter from the price competition that has emerged at the low-end of the express sector.</p>
<h2>Express market is bifurcating</h2>
<p>We see two distinct segments developing within express. At the low end, most of the listed express companies are aggressively pursuing volume share gains in order to reduce costs so they can profitably handle the low-priced parcels that are driving sector growth. Meanwhile, at the high end, SF Holding is successfully courting customers who value speed and reliability ahead of low prices. We expect profitability in this latter segment to remain fairly stable, while at the low end we expect profitability to continue eroding.</p>
<h2>Low-end pressure adds to rising capex demand, sliding returns</h2>
<p>The development of a bifurcated market comes at the same time most Chinese express companies are already facing pressures on cash flow and profitability. We believe most of the listed express companies are increasing capital expenditures in order to expand ‘last mile’ service and to build out needed infrastructure in smaller cities and rural areas. We suspect initial returns on these types of investments will be low, compounding downward pressure on margins related to PDD’s rise.</p>
<h2>Focus on high end should produce better results going forward</h2>
<p>Strong downward pressures on margins will make it increasingly difficult for most express companies to convert strong top-line growth into attractive earnings growth. In the medium-term, we believe companies with limited exposure to low-end parcel volumes are more likely to generate attractive strongest earnings growth. </p>

Growth of low end driven by Pinduoduo
The growth of Pinduoduo (PDD US) has spurred growth in China’s express market over the last two years, accounting for 60% or more of incremental growth in parcel volume in 2018. PDD’s emergence has boosted parcel volume growth, but this gift has come at a price: to win business from the merchants operating on PDD’s platform, express companies must offer rock-bottom pricing.
Volume growth a nice gift, but it comes with a price
PDD’s emergence offers strong volume growth, accompanied by downward pressure on pricing and margins. To combat these pressures, express companies must aggressively pursue parcel volume share in order to reduce unit costs (and thereby limit margin erosion). With most small express players squeezed out, we believe price competition among the remaining express firms is intensifying, with average parcel pricing down by 12-16% YoY in recent months.
At high end of express &amp; logistics, less competition
Away from intensifying competition at the low-end of the express sector, the high-end of China’s express segment features pockets of growth with muted competition. In time-definite (i.e., ‘overnight’) express, international express, supply chain management, and cold-chain logistics, providers tend to compete based on service levels, and their customers tend to be less price-sensitive than those at the low-end of the market. Underlying demand for these services is powered by a gradual ‘consumption upgrade’, helping merchants move high-value goods faster and more reliably compared to mainstream express products. We believe these segments offer shelter from the price competition that has emerged at the low-end of the express sector.
Express market is bifurcating
We see two distinct segments developing within express. At the low end, most of the listed express companies are aggressively pursuing volume share gains in order to reduce costs so they can profitably handle the low-priced parcels that are driving sector growth. Meanwhile, at the high end, SF Holding is successfully courting customers who value speed and reliability ahead of low prices. We expect profitability in this latter segment to remain fairly stable, while at the low end we expect profitability to continue eroding.
Low-end pressure adds to rising capex demand, sliding returns
The development of a bifurcated market comes at the same time most Chinese express companies are already facing pressures on cash flow and profitability. We believe most of the listed express companies are increasing capital expenditures in order to expand ‘last mile’ service and to build out needed infrastructure in smaller cities and rural areas. We suspect initial returns on these types of investments will be low, compounding downward pressure on margins related to PDD’s rise.
Focus on high end should produce better results going forward
Strong downward pressures on margins will make it increasingly difficult for most express companies to convert strong top-line growth into attractive earnings growth. In the medium-term, we believe companies with limited exposure to low-end parcel volumes are more likely to generate attractive strongest earnings growth. 

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April</li>
<li>We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits</li>
<li>Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance</li>
</ul>


In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance


Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> has announced the terms for its IPO where it plans to sell 80.2m shares (6.9% of the total outstanding shares) at an indicative IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$15.38 per share, ANE will raise net proceeds of HK$1,124.1m (US$114.5m) at a market capitalisation of HK$17.9bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$16.3bn. Bloomberg previously reported that the company plans to raise net proceeds of US$500m through the IPO, however, the offer was significantly downsized.</p><p>The company plans to use approx. 40.0% of the net IPO proceeds on building, upgrading and potential acquisitions of 5-10 key transit hubs in strategic locations over the next 24-36 months. ANE plans to allocate 30.0% of the net IPO proceeds for investing in its line-haul truck fleet and another 20% for technology innovations.</p><p>The company has entered into cornerstone investment agreement with Harvest International Premium Value Fund SPC for an aggregate of US$12.5m (approx. HK$97.23m) which represents about 7.88% of the offer shares at the midpoint of the IPO price range.</p>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) has announced the terms for its IPO where it plans to sell 80.2m shares (6.9% of the total outstanding shares) at an indicative IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$15.38 per share, ANE will raise net proceeds of HK$1,124.1m (US$114.5m) at a market capitalisation of HK$17.9bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$16.3bn. Bloomberg previously reported that the company plans to raise net proceeds of US$500m through the IPO, however, the offer was significantly downsized.The company plans to use approx. 40.0% of the net IPO proceeds on building, upgrading and potential acquisitions of 5-10 key transit hubs in strategic locations over the next 24-36 months. ANE plans to allocate 30.0% of the net IPO proceeds for investing in its line-haul truck fleet and another 20% for technology innovations.The company has entered into cornerstone investment agreement with Harvest International Premium Value Fund SPC for an aggregate of US$12.5m (approx. HK$97.23m) which represents about 7.88% of the offer shares at the midpoint of the IPO price range.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p><p>As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.</p><p>By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. </p><p>We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-pre-ipo-margins-expanding-but-appears-to-be-falling-behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind</a>. </p><p>In this note we will talk about the updated financials from the PHIP.</p>

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind. In this note we will talk about the updated financials from the PHIP.

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

China

BEST Inc. offers logistics and supply chain management solutions. The Company provides express and freight delivery, inventory management, warehousing, financing, cross-border supply chain, merchandise sourcing, and value-added services. BEST serves customers worldwide.

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BEST (BEST US)

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

We will write more about SF Holding soon as the company prepares to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong. But we believe some of the themes we...

Daniel Hellberg

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

In May, pricing weakened and volume growth moderated; we expect these two trends to hurt Q2 results. We also believe the planned J&T Global Express...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

ANE IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

At the midpoint, ANE will raise US$114.5m, a significant downsize of its offer. Our valuation suggests ANE's IPO pricing is expensive and absence...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Underlying Growth Is Far from Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

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