Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX anticipates a potential improvement in Thailand's international trade for the remainder of the year, following May’s trade surplus of USD0.656bn.</li><li>This surplus was achieved with imports declining by 1.7% YoY, driven by reduced imports of EVs.</li><li>Concurrently, exports surged to a 14-month high, rising by 7.2% YoY, buoyed by global trade volume trends expected to grow by 2.6% YoY due to easing inflationary pressures.</li></ul>

KTX anticipates a potential improvement in Thailand's international trade for the remainder of the year, following May’s trade surplus of USD0.656bn.This surplus was achieved with imports declining by 1.7% YoY, driven by reduced imports of EVs.Concurrently, exports surged to a 14-month high, rising by 7.2% YoY, buoyed by global trade volume trends expected to grow by 2.6% YoY due to easing inflationary pressures.

Economic Update – Exports & Imports - June 24, 2024

<ul><li>The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.</li><li>Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. </li></ul>

The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. 

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.</li><li>During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.</li><li>In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.</li></ul>

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BTG announced a share buyback of up to 85mn shares (4.39% of total shares) with a maximum budget of Bt2bn.</li><li>KTX projects that by year-end 2025, BTG will report a net D/E ratio of 0.6x, cash on hand of Bt3.9bn, CFO of Bt12.7bn, and FCF of Bt6.2bn.</li><li>The share buyback is expected to enhance per-share performance (e.g., EPS and DPS) and fair value by around 4% in 2026E.</li></ul>

BTG announced a share buyback of up to 85mn shares (4.39% of total shares) with a maximum budget of Bt2bn.KTX projects that by year-end 2025, BTG will report a net D/E ratio of 0.6x, cash on hand of Bt3.9bn, CFO of Bt12.7bn, and FCF of Bt6.2bn.The share buyback is expected to enhance per-share performance (e.g., EPS and DPS) and fair value by around 4% in 2026E.

BETAGRO (BTG): Share Buyback Program of Up to Bt2bn During Sep 29, 2025

<ul><li>2Q25 profit grew YoY and QoQ, in line with expectations.</li><li>For 3Q25E, profit momentum is expected to soften QoQ but remain better than 1Q25, supported by lower raw material costs and the seasonal boost from broiler export sales, even as swine prices decline.</li><li>Swine prices are expected to recover in 4Q25E in line with tourism and economic activity.</li></ul>

2Q25 profit grew YoY and QoQ, in line with expectations.For 3Q25E, profit momentum is expected to soften QoQ but remain better than 1Q25, supported by lower raw material costs and the seasonal boost from broiler export sales, even as swine prices decline.Swine prices are expected to recover in 4Q25E in line with tourism and economic activity.

Thailand

Betagro is a leading integrated agro-industrial and food company in Thailand. Its core businesses include animal feed production, livestock farming, animal health products, and the production and distribution of meat, eggs, fish, and processed foods, including pet food. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1967.

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Betagro (BTG TB)

Economic Update – Exports & Imports - June 24, 2024

KTX anticipates a potential improvement in Thailand's international trade for the remainder of the year, following May’s trade surplus of USD0.656bn.

Krungthai XSpring

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits

Krungthai XSpring

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.

Krungthai XSpring

Betagro - In-Line 2Q25 Earnings

We maintain a Neutral rating, while upgrading our stance on the current fundamentals (from neutral), now seeing very limited tactical downside risk...

Krungthai XSpring

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