IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a> has disclosed a revised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">Mixi Inc (2121 JP)</a> offer at A$1.20, a 13.2% premium to the previous A$1.06 offer and a 10.6% premium to last close. </li>
<li>Due to Betr’s 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi’s scheme, Mixi will consider an off-market takeover offer of A$1.20 with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s if synergies are not factored in. While the Betr’s all-cash offer is equivalent to Mixi’s, it is subject to scale-back.</li>
</ul>



PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) has disclosed a revised Mixi Inc (2121 JP) offer at A$1.20, a 13.2% premium to the previous A$1.06 offer and a 10.6% premium to last close. 
Due to Betr’s 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi’s scheme, Mixi will consider an off-market takeover offer of A$1.20 with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. 
Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s if synergies are not factored in. While the Betr’s all-cash offer is equivalent to Mixi’s, it is subject to scale-back.


PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betr-entertainment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41181:1" rel="noopener">BETR Entertainment (BBT AU)</a> has returned with a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.</li>
<li>Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">Mixi Inc (2121 JP)</a>’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.</li>
<li>Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.</li>
</ul>



BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.


PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

<ul>
<li>On 26 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">Mixi Inc (2121 JP)</a> at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).</li>
<li>Subsequently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluebet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41181:1" rel="noopener">BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU)</a> disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.  </li>
<li>BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi. </li>
</ul>


On 26 February, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP) at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).
Subsequently, BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.  
BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi. 


PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

Australia

Betmakers Technology Group Ltd operates as a software development company. The Company designs and develops odds comparison and intelligent betting platforms, as well as analytics and trading solutions. Betmakers Technology Group serves customers in Australia.

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Betmakers Technology Group (BET AU)

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer

If synergies are not factored in, Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s. The potential Mixi takeover offer will require Betr to revise terms...

Arun George

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation. Mixi can either let the scheme fail (betr has a blocking...

Arun George

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer

If synergies are not factored in, Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s. The potential Mixi takeover offer will require Betr to revise terms...

Arun George

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation. Mixi can either let the scheme fail (betr has a blocking...

Arun George

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential...

Arun George

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete