Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After two rejections, Mesoblast has finally received FDA approval for its first drug. Celltrion has received FDA approval for its Stelara biosimilar, which will be launched in February 2025.</li>
<li>Peptidream has become eligible for a milestone payment. Sumitomo Pharma is strengthening R&amp;D for regenerative medicine and cell therapy business. Astellas Pharma in-licenses technology for developing neurology drugs.</li>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive global license to Merck for its pre-clinical drug candidate. Lupin received FDA approval to market generic version of blockbuster Descovy tablets.</li>
</ul>


After two rejections, Mesoblast has finally received FDA approval for its first drug. Celltrion has received FDA approval for its Stelara biosimilar, which will be launched in February 2025.
Peptidream has become eligible for a milestone payment. Sumitomo Pharma is strengthening R&amp;D for regenerative medicine and cell therapy business. Astellas Pharma in-licenses technology for developing neurology drugs.
Hansoh Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive global license to Merck for its pre-clinical drug candidate. Lupin received FDA approval to market generic version of blockbuster Descovy tablets.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascentage-pharma-group-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27824:1" rel="noopener">Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK)</a> reported revenue of RMB 302.2M in 1Q26 (up 29% YoY), from the sales of pharmaceutical products, commercialization rights income from Innovent Suzhou and service income.</li>
<li>R&amp;D cost will continue to tread on a higher trajectory. Company will continue to advance enrolment in the trials and actively advance inclusion of Lisaftoclax in China’s NRDL in 2026.</li>
<li>Building on the differentiated clinical profile of both products, Ascentage is well positioned to accelerate market penetration and prepare for potential new indication approvals and upcoming NRDL inclusion opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) reported revenue of RMB 302.2M in 1Q26 (up 29% YoY), from the sales of pharmaceutical products, commercialization rights income from Innovent Suzhou and service income.
R&amp;D cost will continue to tread on a higher trajectory. Company will continue to advance enrolment in the trials and actively advance inclusion of Lisaftoclax in China’s NRDL in 2026.
Building on the differentiated clinical profile of both products, Ascentage is well positioned to accelerate market penetration and prepare for potential new indication approvals and upcoming NRDL inclusion opportunities.


Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK): Trials Progress, Olverembatinib, Lisaftoclax Gain Momentum in 1H26

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Many investors may not understand China's NRDL negotiation system and the new adjustments in July. So, we think it’s necessary to clarify the rules/key points of NRDL negotiation procedures.</li>
<li>NHSA provides clear calculation rules for price reduction, greatly increasing the predictability of price changes during renewal process in NRDL negotiation. However, the benefits brought by new adjustments are limited.</li>
<li>The main direct beneficiaries are those "old drugs" since their price reduction can be controlled in renewal process. For enterprises, the biggest obstacle is the first NRDL negotiation with NHSA.</li>
</ul>


Many investors may not understand China's NRDL negotiation system and the new adjustments in July. So, we think it’s necessary to clarify the rules/key points of NRDL negotiation procedures.
NHSA provides clear calculation rules for price reduction, greatly increasing the predictability of price changes during renewal process in NRDL negotiation. However, the benefits brought by new adjustments are limited.
The main direct beneficiaries are those "old drugs" since their price reduction can be controlled in renewal process. For enterprises, the biggest obstacle is the first NRDL negotiation with NHSA.


Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

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Betta Pharmaceuticals (BETTA HK)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

Mesoblast got FDA approval for its first drug, while Betta Pharma, Celltrion, and Lupin also received some major FDA approvals. Pharma companies...

Tina Banerjee

Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK): Trials Progress, Olverembatinib, Lisaftoclax Gain Momentum in 1H26

Ascentage Pharma revenue up 29% to RMB 302.2M in 1Q26. R&D cost tread on a higher trajectory. Well positioned to accelerate market penetration and...

Tina Banerjee

Interpretation of the New Adjustments in Medical Insurance (NRDL) Negotiation Rules and the Impact

It's necessary to explain the NRDL negotiation system and new adjustments, which increase the predictability of drug price decline.Investors are...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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