Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>“Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Online Drug Sales” was released, which indicated that the online sale of prescription drugs is allowed, but there are certain restrictions and requirements.</li>
<li>The rise of China biotech is based on the historical opportunities of both alpha (individual efforts) and beta (industry development) superposition. It’s unique. Investors shouldn’t expect to “copy” similar paths.</li>
<li>We have noted that some biotech/biopharma have or are considering changing excess capacity to do CDMO. This is caused by too much “bubble” in the market, which is not logical.</li>
</ul>


“Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Online Drug Sales” was released, which indicated that the online sale of prescription drugs is allowed, but there are certain restrictions and requirements.
The rise of China biotech is based on the historical opportunities of both alpha (individual efforts) and beta (industry development) superposition. It’s unique. Investors shouldn’t expect to “copy” similar paths.
We have noted that some biotech/biopharma have or are considering changing excess capacity to do CDMO. This is caused by too much “bubble” in the market, which is not logical.


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascentage-pharma-group-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27824:1" rel="noopener">Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK)</a> has filed for a likely future at-the-market equity offering program of American depositary shares to raise up to US$ 200M.</li>
<li>Company reported revenue of RMB 574.1M in 2025, down 41.5%, largely because of high base effect. Revenue from Olverembatinib was up 81% YoY. Lisaftoclax garnered RMB 70.6M in sales.</li>
<li>Losses will continue and R&amp;D expenses, commercialization cost will be catered to by the likes of above ADS offering and previous placement proceeds. 2027 likely to be an inflection point.</li>
</ul>



Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) has filed for a likely future at-the-market equity offering program of American depositary shares to raise up to US$ 200M.
Company reported revenue of RMB 574.1M in 2025, down 41.5%, largely because of high base effect. Revenue from Olverembatinib was up 81% YoY. Lisaftoclax garnered RMB 70.6M in sales.
Losses will continue and R&amp;D expenses, commercialization cost will be catered to by the likes of above ADS offering and previous placement proceeds. 2027 likely to be an inflection point.


Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK): ADS Offering Justified, 2027 Likely To Be An Inflection Point

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The 2021 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan is soliciting opinions, and drugs approved for market launch during 2020.8.17 - 2021.6.30 will be eligible to participate in the negotiations.</li>
<li>Related departments issued new documents stating that from June to December this year, they will jointly carry out a special campaign to crack down on illegal medical beauty activities.</li>
<li>The General Office of the State Council issued a new document about the  development of public hospitals.</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a>.Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.8%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.34% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The 2021 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan is soliciting opinions, and drugs approved for market launch during 2020.8.17 - 2021.6.30 will be eligible to participate in the negotiations.
Related departments issued new documents stating that from June to December this year, they will jointly carry out a special campaign to crack down on illegal medical beauty activities.
The General Office of the State Council issued a new document about the  development of public hospitals.
Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs of BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK).Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.8%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.34% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) released new interim procedures about the medical insurance coverage for the retail pharmacies, which will come into effect on February 1st, 2021.</li>
<li>The epidemic since the end of 2019 has brought a large demand for blood products.</li>
<li>With the improvement of affordability, the expansion of medical insurance coverage and the increase of R&amp;D investment, the biological drug market size is expected to further expand.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs and new license agreement of Fosun Kite, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betta-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25883:1" rel="noopener">Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH)</a>.3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.41%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.68% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:
The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) released new interim procedures about the medical insurance coverage for the retail pharmacies, which will come into effect on February 1st, 2021.
The epidemic since the end of 2019 has brought a large demand for blood products.
With the improvement of affordability, the expansion of medical insurance coverage and the increase of R&amp;D investment, the biological drug market size is expected to further expand.
2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs and new license agreement of Fosun Kite, BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 2.41%, while CSI 300 decreased 0.68% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

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Betta Pharmaceuticals (BETTA HK)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

New policy of online drug sales is released,including certain restrictions.The rise of China biotech is based on historical opportunity of alpha...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK): ADS Offering Justified, 2027 Likely To Be An Inflection Point

Ascentage Pharma plans to raise up to US$200M through ADS offering. Olverembatinib, Lisaftoclax gradually gaining momentum. 2027 likely to be an...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.18)

The article analyzed the 2021 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan, new document to crack down on illegal medical beauty activities, new...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.15)

This article analyzed the new interim procedures released by NHSA, trend of blood products and biological drug market, and also include company...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

New policy of online drug sales is released,including certain restrictions.The rise of China biotech is based on historical opportunity of alpha...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK): ADS Offering Justified, 2027 Likely To Be An Inflection Point

​Ascentage Pharma plans to raise up to US$200M through ADS offering. Olverembatinib, Lisaftoclax gradually gaining momentum. 2027 likely to be an...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.18)

The article analyzed the 2021 medical insurance catalogue adjustment plan, new document to crack down on illegal medical beauty activities, new...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.15)

This article analyzed the new interim procedures released by NHSA, trend of blood products and biological drug market, and also include company...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ascentage Pharma plans to raise up to US$200M through ADS offering. Olverembatinib, Lisaftoclax gradually gaining momentum. 2027 likely to be an...