Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reiterate our HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt10.70. The key pillars to our call include: 1) intact core profit growth backed by demand recovery;2) attractive dividend yield</li>
<li>Neutral tone from the analyst meeting Management positive about revenue growth of 14% in 2022E, aided by strong underlying demand. Given the pent-up demand for alcoholic beverages in 4Q22</li>
<li>BGC expects its new M&amp;A, which is in the packaging business to begin operation roughly in 1Q23. The deal is in the range of Btt500-600m (69%-83% of 2021 CAPEX).</li>
</ul>


We reiterate our HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt10.70. The key pillars to our call include: 1) intact core profit growth backed by demand recovery;2) attractive dividend yield
Neutral tone from the analyst meeting Management positive about revenue growth of 14% in 2022E, aided by strong underlying demand. Given the pent-up demand for alcoholic beverages in 4Q22
BGC expects its new M&amp;A, which is in the packaging business to begin operation roughly in 1Q23. The deal is in the range of Btt500-600m (69%-83% of 2021 CAPEX).


BGC : Brighter Outlook in 4Q22 with New M&As on the Card

<ul>
<li>We retain our HOLD recommendation with a rollover TP of Bt10.70,derived from 15.2xPE’23E. Our neutral views are supported by 1)intact growth: 2)attractive yield and 3)potential value uplift from new M&amp;As.</li>
<li>3Q22 core profit grew YoY and QoQ BGC’s 3Q22 earnings came in-line with our forecast of Bt97m (-23%YoY,-10%QoQ).The 9M22 earnings were at Bt421m accounting for 75% of our full-year forecast.  </li>
<li>Excluding the extra items, its core profit came in at Bt85m (+10%YoY, +20%QoQ).</li>
</ul>


We retain our HOLD recommendation with a rollover TP of Bt10.70,derived from 15.2xPE’23E. Our neutral views are supported by 1)intact growth: 2)attractive yield and 3)potential value uplift from new M&amp;As.
3Q22 core profit grew YoY and QoQ BGC’s 3Q22 earnings came in-line with our forecast of Bt97m (-23%YoY,-10%QoQ).The 9M22 earnings were at Bt421m accounting for 75% of our full-year forecast.  
Excluding the extra items, its core profit came in at Bt85m (+10%YoY, +20%QoQ).


BGC : 3Q22 Earnings In-Line with Estimates

<ul>
<li>We keep our HOLD rating with TP of Bt10.5,derived from 13.2xPE’23E.We expect 3Q22 earnings to recover QoQ, backed by effective pass-through of higher raw materials costs after lagged in 2Q22</li>
<li>Neutral tone from the analyst meeting We believe 3Q22 earnings momentum to recover QoQ but slightly drop YoY backed by healthier gross margin guidance at around 13% (-6.1ppts YoY,and +0.9%QoQ)</li>
<li>Margin weakness dragged 2Q22 core profit BGC’s 2Q22 net income came in at Bt108m (-12%YoY,-50%QoQ),which was in line with our forecast.Excluding the extra gains, its core profit was at Bt71m(-43%YoY,-47%QoQ)</li>
</ul>


We keep our HOLD rating with TP of Bt10.5,derived from 13.2xPE’23E.We expect 3Q22 earnings to recover QoQ, backed by effective pass-through of higher raw materials costs after lagged in 2Q22
Neutral tone from the analyst meeting We believe 3Q22 earnings momentum to recover QoQ but slightly drop YoY backed by healthier gross margin guidance at around 13% (-6.1ppts YoY,and +0.9%QoQ)
Margin weakness dragged 2Q22 core profit BGC’s 2Q22 net income came in at Bt108m (-12%YoY,-50%QoQ),which was in line with our forecast.Excluding the extra gains, its core profit was at Bt71m(-43%YoY,-47%QoQ)


<ul>
<li>Yesterday site visit to BVP and BGP plants came out as neutral tone.We do see its underlying growth potential but believe both will not be a growth driver for 2022-23. </li>
<li>Yesterday’s company visit came in at neutral tone : We visited BVP (Paper packaging manufacturer) at Pathumthani and BGP (PET and Plastic films packaging manufacture) at Ayutthaya. </li>
<li>A challenging growth roadmap, but only time will tell: The company target to achieve sales to Bt25bn by 2025,representing a 19% 4Y CAGR (2021-25E) by M&amp;A strategy focusing at businesses </li>
</ul>


Yesterday site visit to BVP and BGP plants came out as neutral tone.We do see its underlying growth potential but believe both will not be a growth driver for 2022-23. 
Yesterday’s company visit came in at neutral tone : We visited BVP (Paper packaging manufacturer) at Pathumthani and BGP (PET and Plastic films packaging manufacture) at Ayutthaya. 
A challenging growth roadmap, but only time will tell: The company target to achieve sales to Bt25bn by 2025,representing a 19% 4Y CAGR (2021-25E) by M&amp;A strategy focusing at businesses 


<ul>
<li>Yesterdays’ analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve on QoQ, especially from surge in glass packaging unit after countries reopen, along with lockdown </li>
<li>Expect 4Q21 earnings to improve QoQ, backed by recovery in topline from packaging segments, considering its the high season quarter.</li>
<li>Expect revenue to bounce QoQ, supported by sales volume growth after lockdown easing and better export markets for alcohol and soft drinks.</li>
</ul>


Yesterdays’ analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve on QoQ, especially from surge in glass packaging unit after countries reopen, along with lockdown 
Expect 4Q21 earnings to improve QoQ, backed by recovery in topline from packaging segments, considering its the high season quarter.
Expect revenue to bounce QoQ, supported by sales volume growth after lockdown easing and better export markets for alcohol and soft drinks.


Thailand

BG Container Glass Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes glass bottles and a wide range of other packaging products, including plastic packaging, film labels, plastic caps, corrugated packaging, flexible packaging, and aluminum packaging. The company also imports and distributes glassware products and provides supply chain management. It was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Pathum Thani, Thailand.

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BG Container Glass (BGC TB)

BGC : Brighter Outlook in 4Q22 with New M&As on the Card

We reiterate our HOLD recommendation with a target price of Bt10.70. The key pillars to our call include: 1) intact core profit growth backed by...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BGC : 3Q22 Earnings In-Line with Estimates

We retain our HOLD recommendation with a rollover TP of Bt10.70, derived from 15.2xPE’23E. Our neutral views are supported by 1) intact growth: 2)...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BGC : Earnings Recovery in Sight

We keep our HOLD rating with TP of Bt10.5, derived from 13.2xPE’23E. We expect 3Q22 earnings to recover QoQ, backed by effective pass-through of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BGC : Packaging Remains a Key Focus

Yesterday site visit to BVP and BGP plants came out as neutral tone.We do see its underlying growth potential but believe both will not be a growth...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BGC: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Recover QoQ

Yesterdays’ analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 earnings to improve on QoQ, especially from surge in glass packaging unit...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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