Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Policy rates are likely to remain at current levels; downside risks to overvalued rupee.

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Policy rates are likely to remain at current levels; downside risks to overvalued rupee.

India: Growth Outlook Remains Tilted to the Downside

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two monetary policy frameworks – inflation targeting and “monetary targeting’’ – that it wants to follow – and these could be contradictory creating confusion about monetary policy intent. The RBI’s policy quandary has to an extent been driven by the poor quality of the fiscal adjustment that the government has undertaken. The Indian government’s fiscal consolidation efforts thus far have been an accounting mirage. The political and the monetary authorities will need to work together to frame appropriate and coordinated policies to ward off the emerging risks to the economy.

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two monetary policy frameworks – inflation targeting and “monetary targeting’’ – that it wants to follow – and these could be contradictory creating confusion about monetary policy intent. The RBI’s policy quandary has to an extent been driven by the poor quality of the fiscal adjustment that the government has undertaken. The Indian government’s fiscal consolidation efforts thus far have been an accounting mirage. The political and the monetary authorities will need to work together to frame appropriate and coordinated policies to ward off the emerging risks to the economy.

Global Economic Woes Mask India's Policy Confusion

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

<ul><li>The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last year</li><li>Demand indicators as seen through the leasing activity, rental movement and the fall in vacancy rates points to positive trends for the sector that has lagged its residential counterpart since 2012</li><li>The offers promising yields of 9-10% across the top cities along with chances of capital appreciation</li><li>High Yield has attracted many global PE &amp; pension funds and Blackstone today has emerged as the largest owner of grade-A office space in India with a portfolio of over 30msf (million square feet)</li><li>Impending creation and listing of REITs in India will be another positive trigger for the sector as developers and asset owners unlock capital from tenanted properties  </li></ul>

The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last yearDemand indicators as seen through the leasing activity, rental movement and the fall in vacancy rates points to positive trends for the sector that has lagged its residential counterpart since 2012The offers promising yields of 9-10% across the top cities along with chances of capital appreciationHigh Yield has attracted many global PE &amp; pension funds and Blackstone today has emerged as the largest owner of grade-A office space in India with a portfolio of over 30msf (million square feet)Impending creation and listing of REITs in India will be another positive trigger for the sector as developers and asset owners unlock capital from tenanted properties  

Looking for Yield? India Office Property Offers 10%; Sector on an Uptick; REIT Listings Next Trigger

India

Bharat Financial Inclusion Limited (BFIL) is an Indian Non-Banking Financial Company - Microfinance Institution (NBFC-MFI) that provides financial services, primarily small loans and micro-credit, to low-income individuals and underserved populations in rural India. The company focuses on empowering women and aims to alleviate poverty by supporting micro-businesses, agricultural activities, and other income-generating initiatives. BFIL was founded in 1997 (originally as SKS Microfinance Limited) and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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Bharat Financial Inclusion (BHAFIN IN)

India: Growth Outlook Remains Tilted to the Downside

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural...

Rajan Govil

Global Economic Woes Mask India's Policy Confusion

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two...

Rajan Govil

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew...

Rajan Govil

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear...

Daniel Tabbush

Looking for Yield? India Office Property Offers 10%; Sector on an Uptick; REIT Listings Next Trigger

The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last year Demand indicators as seen through the leasing...

Asia Advisors

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