Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and four changes for NIFTY 100. We expect the results to be announced in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and four changes for NIFTY 100. We expect the results to be announced in the next few days.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock rallied ~33% and outperformed the Sensex by ~22% over the last 6M</li><li>However, we believe the current market price is still factoring in very optimistic earnings growth on the back of a very strong FY24</li><li>With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to adversely impact BPCL’s marketing segment profitability, going ahead</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) stock rallied ~33% and outperformed the Sensex by ~22% over the last 6MHowever, we believe the current market price is still factoring in very optimistic earnings growth on the back of a very strong FY24With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to adversely impact BPCL’s marketing segment profitability, going aheadContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Brent crude prices have fallen below $70 per barrel, driven by rising non-OPEC supply, weak global demand, and geopolitical shifts, easing inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies like India.</li>
<li>Lower crude prices benefit OMCs, paints, tyres, and aviation, boosting margins, while upstream oil producers and government revenue face pressure, creating a mixed impact on India's economy.</li>
<li>Oil prices may remain range-bound in the mid-$60s to $70s, with OPEC+ production strategies, global demand trends, and geopolitical risks shaping future market movements.</li>
</ul>


Brent crude prices have fallen below $70 per barrel, driven by rising non-OPEC supply, weak global demand, and geopolitical shifts, easing inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies like India.
Lower crude prices benefit OMCs, paints, tyres, and aviation, boosting margins, while upstream oil producers and government revenue face pressure, creating a mixed impact on India's economy.
Oil prices may remain range-bound in the mid-$60s to $70s, with OPEC+ production strategies, global demand trends, and geopolitical risks shaping future market movements.


How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24 results with an EBITDA of Rs92.1 bn (up 48% QoQ, PLe: Rs85.8 bn).</li>
<li>Adj PAT came in at Rs55.7 bn (up 64% QoQ, PLe: Rs48.4 bn).</li>
<li>The company reported a moderate GRM at US$12.5/bbl.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24 results with an EBITDA of Rs92.1 bn (up 48% QoQ, PLe: Rs85.8 bn).
Adj PAT came in at Rs55.7 bn (up 64% QoQ, PLe: Rs48.4 bn).
The company reported a moderate GRM at US$12.5/bbl.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.</li><li>Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.</li><li>Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

India

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

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Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index

The NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 expected DELs have been underperforming the NIFTY 50 index over the last few months and that could continue over the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to...

HDFC Securities

How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

Falling Brent crude prices below $70/barrel benefit Indian economy through easing inflation, boosting certain industries, but pose challenges for...

Nimish Maheshwari

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025. Europe Group II prices flip to premium to...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index

The NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 expected DELs have been underperforming the NIFTY 50 index over the last few months and that could continue over the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BPCL: Demanding Valuation. Maintain REDUCE

With crude oil prices rising by ~5% from average prices seen in Q4FY24 and rising ~12% to over USD 86/bbl over the last month, we expect this to...

HDFC Securities

How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

​Falling Brent crude prices below $70/barrel benefit Indian economy through easing inflation, boosting certain industries, but pose challenges for...

Nimish Maheshwari

Bharat Petroleum Corporation - Operating Profit Improves Sequentially

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onBharat Petroleum Corporation Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q4FY24...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025. Europe Group II prices flip to premium to...

Base Oil News

Falling Brent crude prices below $70/barrel benefit Indian economy through easing inflation, boosting certain industries, but pose challenges for...