Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Timing: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.</li>
</ul>



Timing: BHP (BHP AU) reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.

Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.

Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.


BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 
</li>
<li>
Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 


Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.

Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty. 


S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD24.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles, National Australia Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD24.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles, National Australia Bank.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto's</a> share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.</li>
<li>This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.</li>
</ul>



Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.

Rio Tinto's share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Australia

BHP Billiton Limited is an international resources company.  The Company's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining.  Dually-listed company with BLT LN.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

BHP Group Ltd (BHP US)

BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

BHP to report annual results on August 19, with options suggesting bullish post-earnings move. Gain insight into earnings history and market...

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

RBA to announce rate decision on 12 Aug, as markets split between 0.25% and 0.50% cuts. Explore potential impact and a unique perspective.

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

​BHP to report annual results on August 19, with options suggesting bullish post-earnings move. Gain insight into earnings history and market...

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

RBA to announce rate decision on 12 Aug, as markets split between 0.25% and 0.50% cuts. Explore potential impact and a unique perspective.

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

​Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP to report annual results on August 19, with options suggesting bullish post-earnings move. Gain insight into earnings history and market...

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.