Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Timing: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.</li>
</ul>



Timing: BHP (BHP AU) reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.

Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.

Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.


BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BHP Group's fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25.</li><li>Weaker commodity pricing and delays at Jansen potash provided negative offsets</li></ul>

BHP Group's fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25.Weaker commodity pricing and delays at Jansen potash provided negative offsets

BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather</li>
<li>The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market </li>
<li>We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore </li>
</ul>


BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather
The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market 
We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore 


BHP: Operations Strong in Q4/25 But Looking Fully Valued

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>BHP Group Limited's performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational challenges in its diverse portfolio.</li><li>The first half results showcase several strengths and areas for further focus as the company navigates a complex global mining landscape.</li><li>A key positive from BHP’s recent performance is the record output in its Western Australian iron ore operations, which achieved the lowest production costs globally.</li></ul>

BHP Group Limited's performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational challenges in its diverse portfolio.The first half results showcase several strengths and areas for further focus as the company navigates a complex global mining landscape.A key positive from BHP’s recent performance is the record output in its Western Australian iron ore operations, which achieved the lowest production costs globally.

BHP Group: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the $4.4 Billion Profit Engine Fueling the Next Commodity Supercycle!

<ul>
<li>BHP announced an AUD1.5bn (US$1.0bn) deal with Aurizon for transport logistics for South Australia Copper, which could affect about 5% of EBITDA and reduce costs marginally</li>
<li>The shares declined over the past month on declining iron ore and coal prices, and while copper has risen on supply side issues, we see risks of a H2/25 drop</li>
<li>The company looks about fairly valued on an ROE to P/B comparison versus its Australian peers and the current price is almost exactly inline with our DCF valuation </li>
</ul>


BHP announced an AUD1.5bn (US$1.0bn) deal with Aurizon for transport logistics for South Australia Copper, which could affect about 5% of EBITDA and reduce costs marginally
The shares declined over the past month on declining iron ore and coal prices, and while copper has risen on supply side issues, we see risks of a H2/25 drop
The company looks about fairly valued on an ROE to P/B comparison versus its Australian peers and the current price is almost exactly inline with our DCF valuation 


Marginal Cost Reduction from Copper Shipment Deal

Australia

BHP Billiton Limited is an international resources company.  The Company's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining.  Dually-listed company with BLT LN.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP US)

BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

BHP to report annual results on August 19, with options suggesting bullish post-earnings move. Gain insight into earnings history and market...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges

BHP Group's fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25. Weaker commodity pricing and delays at...

FNArena

BHP: Operations Strong in Q4/25 But Looking Fully Valued

While BHP's Q2/25 operations were strong overall, we remain concerned on a potential iron ore and copper price pullback and the shares look fully...

Graeme Cunningham

BHP Group: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the $4.4 Billion Profit Engine Fueling the Next Commodity Supercycle!

BHP Group Limited's performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational...

Baptista Research

Marginal Cost Reduction from Copper Shipment Deal

BHP's South Australia Copper logistics and infrastructure deal will marginally reduce costs, downside risks remain for its metal prices and it...

Graeme Cunningham

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

​BHP to report annual results on August 19, with options suggesting bullish post-earnings move. Gain insight into earnings history and market...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP Battling Rising Costs, Production Challenges

BHP Group's fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25. Weaker commodity pricing and delays at...

FNArena

BHP: Operations Strong in Q4/25 But Looking Fully Valued

While BHP's Q2/25 operations were strong overall, we remain concerned on a potential iron ore and copper price pullback and the shares look fully...

Graeme Cunningham

BHP Group: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the $4.4 Billion Profit Engine Fueling the Next Commodity Supercycle!

BHP Group Limited's performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational...

Baptista Research

Marginal Cost Reduction from Copper Shipment Deal

BHP's South Australia Copper logistics and infrastructure deal will marginally reduce costs, downside risks remain for its metal prices and it...

Graeme Cunningham

BHP to report annual results on August 19, with options suggesting bullish post-earnings move. Gain insight into earnings history and market...