Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market appears to be pricing into BHP a continued copper boom and limited downside for the iron ore price, which we view as increasingly risky</li>
<li>While Q2/26 production growth was mixed, we see a lower probability of risk from missed output guidance than a metals price plunge or cost increase from the oil spike </li>
<li>BHP could be a strong short play with major risks from metals prices, a potential jump in costs, and rich valuations, with our estimate -30% below the market</li>
</ul>


The market appears to be pricing into BHP a continued copper boom and limited downside for the iron ore price, which we view as increasingly risky
While Q2/26 production growth was mixed, we see a lower probability of risk from missed output guidance than a metals price plunge or cost increase from the oil spike 
BHP could be a strong short play with major risks from metals prices, a potential jump in costs, and rich valuations, with our estimate -30% below the market


BHP: Metals Price Risks, Cost Pressure and Rich Valuation Overwhelm Output Growth

BHP Group Ltd

BHP: Metals Price Risks, Cost Pressure and Rich Valuation Overwhelm Output Growth