Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. </li>
<li>The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. </li>
<li>The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). </li>
</ul>


We like Vale (VALE US) for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. 
The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. 
The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). 


VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

<ul>
<li>Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).</li>
<li>The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. </li>
<li>Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.</li>
</ul>


Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).
The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. 
Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.


Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

<ul>
<li>The pivot in capital allocation plans of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. </li>
<li>We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. </li>
<li>We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a>, and would take money off the table here.</li>
</ul>


The pivot in capital allocation plans of Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. 
We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. 
We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ), and would take money off the table here.


Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

<ul>
<li>There were further updates on the Simandou iron ore mine, <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-shakeup-begins-as-simandous-first-boat-heads-for-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">which commenced operations</a><a href="https://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-shakeup-begins-as-simandous-first-boat-heads-for-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>last week, igniting bearish sentiment and taking iron ore prices down 3% WoW to 103 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Demand, though, for higher-grade material remains strong, resulting in a widening spread between 65 and 62 Fe to almost 16 USD/ton (from 12-13 USD/ton a week ago). </li>
<li>We favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> for its high growth profile and potential to increase production from 1.5 million tons to around 10 million tons. </li>
</ul>


There were further updates on the Simandou iron ore mine, which commenced operations last week, igniting bearish sentiment and taking iron ore prices down 3% WoW to 103 USD/ton.
Demand, though, for higher-grade material remains strong, resulting in a widening spread between 65 and 62 Fe to almost 16 USD/ton (from 12-13 USD/ton a week ago). 
We favor Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its high growth profile and potential to increase production from 1.5 million tons to around 10 million tons. 


Iron Ore 65-62 Spread Widens, Despite The Commencement of Simandou Shipments

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Dec)

Australia

BHP Billiton Limited is an international resources company.  The Company's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining.  Dually-listed company with BLT LN.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP US)

VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

We initiate coverage on VALE US, one of the world's biggest iron ore producers, with high-grade iron ore and low-cost production. The stock trades...

Sameer Taneja

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

We provide a rationale for why we do not like Whitehaven Coal's suspension of its buy back program despite the strong coal price environment and...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore 65-62 Spread Widens, Despite The Commencement of Simandou Shipments

Updates on Simandou iron ore ramp-up and other key drivers; we name Fenix Resources (FEX AU) our top sector pick and outline the investment case.

Sameer Taneja

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

We initiate coverage on VALE US, one of the world's biggest iron ore producers, with high-grade iron ore and low-cost production. The stock trades...

Sameer Taneja

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

We provide a rationale for why we do not like Whitehaven Coal's suspension of its buy back program despite the strong coal price environment and...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore 65-62 Spread Widens, Despite The Commencement of Simandou Shipments

Updates on Simandou iron ore ramp-up and other key drivers; we name Fenix Resources (FEX AU) our top sector pick and outline the investment case.

Sameer Taneja

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.