Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

IntroductionThere have been three key growth drivers of residential property development in China in my view: 1) The increase in urban population; 2) the increase in living space per person and 3) the upgrading of sub-standard housing.  The result of these three drivers is that private urban residential property development in China has grown in nominal terms from USD300bn in 2008 to USD1.4tr now - a cagr of 21%. Residential property sales in China are now larger than the GDP of Russia or…

IntroductionThere have been three key growth drivers of residential property development in China in my view: 1) The increase in urban population; 2) the increase in living space per person and 3) the upgrading of sub-standard housing.  The result of these three drivers is that private urban residential property development in China has grown in nominal terms from USD300bn in 2008 to USD1.4tr now - a cagr of 21%. Residential property sales in China are now larger than the GDP of Russia or…

Money Matters: Have the Drivers of Residential Property Investment in China Run Their Course?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Technical Analysis

CBA AU back to key support at 79.00/77.65 key support to remain bullish to 91.00 even 96.70ANZ AU - only breaking 29.00 in pre-signal and 30.65 surpassed in confirmation would validate a bullish outlook again.NAB AU - Good conviction ** bullish above 28.90 to 33.70.WBC AU - Bullish above 29.40 to 35.00 (Good conviction**)BHP AU - Bearish below 24.10 to 21.25 max 19.14RIO AU - Right above trialling stop 60.40 (previous entry long above 55.65 in May 2017) with target still at 69.80 max 77.20…

CBA AU back to key support at 79.00/77.65 key support to remain bullish to 91.00 even 96.70ANZ AU - only breaking 29.00 in pre-signal and 30.65 surpassed in confirmation would validate a bullish outlook again.NAB AU - Good conviction ** bullish above 28.90 to 33.70.WBC AU - Bullish above 29.40 to 35.00 (Good conviction**)BHP AU - Bearish below 24.10 to 21.25 max 19.14RIO AU - Right above trialling stop 60.40 (previous entry long above 55.65 in May 2017) with target still at 69.80 max 77.20…

Australia Banks and RIO Out Performance Opportunity Vs BHP

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Equity Bottom-Up

Initiating coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24163" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24163:1">Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN)</a> with a target of £2.10/sh.<ol class=""><li>Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance sheet risk. We do not anticipate any significant geopolitical or default risk to warrant the massive discount.</li><li>Balance sheet deleverage expected to continue in FY17, internal cash generation sufficient to repay debt, may require some refinancing at iron ore price &lt; US$50/t</li><li>New Projects and Brown field expansions expected to increase value by as much as 18% to base case </li><li>FXPO is valued at £2.73/share, an upside of ~60% to last close price.</li></ol>

Initiating coverage of Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) with a target of £2.10/sh.Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance sheet risk. We do not anticipate any significant geopolitical or default risk to warrant the massive discount.Balance sheet deleverage expected to continue in FY17, internal cash generation sufficient to repay debt, may require some refinancing at iron ore price &lt; US$50/tNew Projects and Brown field expansions expected to increase value by as much as 18% to base case FXPO is valued at £2.73/share, an upside of ~60% to last close price.

FXPO: Geopolitical & Balance Sheet Risks Overblown; Deep Discount Provides Buying Opportunity

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

Money Matters: Have the Drivers of Residential Property Investment in China Run Their Course?

IntroductionThere have been three key growth drivers of residential property development in China in my view: 1) The increase in urban population;...

Stewart Paterson

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels,presenting attractive entry points. We see...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

Australia Banks and RIO Out Performance Opportunity Vs BHP

CBA AU back to key support at 79.00/77.65 key support to remain bullish to 91.00 even 96.70ANZ AU - only breaking 29.00 in pre-signal and 30.65...

BBSP Asia

FXPO: Geopolitical & Balance Sheet Risks Overblown; Deep Discount Provides Buying Opportunity

Initiating coverage of Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) with a target of £2.10/sh. Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

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52-week Range

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