Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. </li>
<li>Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.</li>
<li>Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.</li>
</ul>


Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. 
Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.
Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.


Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.</li><li>Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.</li><li>But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market</li></ul>

Today I don’t want to talk about commodity markets - today I want to present you a new strategy we designed over the past years.Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.But what if I tell you there is an equity staretgy that translates our framework to equities: has no signifacant correlation to the broad equity market

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The Commodity Purity Index (CPI, an unfortunate acronym) is a framework developed to measure, on a rolling basis, the extent to which the underlying commodity drives a commodity producer's stock price behavior.</li><li>The score runs from 0 to 100. A score of 80 or above means the stock moves almost entirely with the commodity: it is essentially a leveraged commodity instrument wrapped in equity form.</li><li>A score below 20 means that, despite being a copper miner or an oil producer, the commodity is barely registering as a driver of the stock's day-to-day behavior.</li></ul>

The Commodity Purity Index (CPI, an unfortunate acronym) is a framework developed to measure, on a rolling basis, the extent to which the underlying commodity drives a commodity producer's stock price behavior.The score runs from 0 to 100. A score of 80 or above means the stock moves almost entirely with the commodity: it is essentially a leveraged commodity instrument wrapped in equity form.A score below 20 means that, despite being a copper miner or an oil producer, the commodity is barely registering as a driver of the stock's day-to-day behavior.

You’re Not Long Copper: The Exposure Is Not What You Thought It Was

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.</li>
<li>This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.</li>
<li>Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.
This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.
Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.


DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

<ul><li>The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.</li><li>These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…</li><li>The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).</li></ul>

The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Re-sharing as recent copper strength continues to raise the question of whether upstream tightness is genuinely transmitting into the refined...

Duncan Chan

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.

The Commodity Report

You’re Not Long Copper: The Exposure Is Not What You Thought It Was

The Commodity Purity Index (CPI, an unfortunate acronym) is a framework developed to measure, on a rolling basis, the extent to which the...

Massif Capital Research

DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 1-year low due to Fed rate cut expectations, central bank uncertainty, and changing global risk appetite,...

Rahul Jain

Something Is Brewing…

These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Re-sharing as recent copper strength continues to raise the question of whether upstream tightness is genuinely transmitting into the refined...

Duncan Chan

We have a Mighty Commodity Equity Strategy now

Our goal was always to find a way to translate our commodity/macro expertise also to commodity equities - and as you may know this can be quite tough.

The Commodity Report

You’re Not Long Copper: The Exposure Is Not What You Thought It Was

The Commodity Purity Index (CPI, an unfortunate acronym) is a framework developed to measure, on a rolling basis, the extent to which the...

Massif Capital Research

DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

​The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 1-year low due to Fed rate cut expectations, central bank uncertainty, and changing global risk appetite,...

Rahul Jain

Something Is Brewing…

These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical...

The Commodity Report

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 1-year low due to Fed rate cut expectations, central bank uncertainty, and changing global risk appetite,...