AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.</li>
<li>A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.</li>
<li>The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.</li>
</ul>


Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.
The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.


Copper Finding Its Pulse in the Fog Of (Hitherto) Weak Demand

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week, BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week

Featuring Colin Hamilton, Commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, Metal Matters discusses the hot topics in Global Metals & Mining each week.

<ul><li>Turbulent macro backdrop with concerns over US-China trade relations and credit quality affecting global economy and metals demand</li><li>Mixed sentiments on copper market balances for next year, with varying views on supply from DRC and Chinese demand</li><li>Aluminium narrative looking positive with China's X supply growth and debate on market balances centered around capacity ramp up from Indonesia</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Turbulent macro backdrop with concerns over US-China trade relations and credit quality affecting global economy and metals demandMixed sentiments on copper market balances for next year, with varying views on supply from DRC and Chinese demandAluminium narrative looking positive with China's X supply growth and debate on market balances centered around capacity ramp up from IndonesiaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>“We’re going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers,” Trump said at the White House.</li><li>Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said the administration is weighing an aid program, opens new tab modeled after the approach taken by the previous Trump administration, when farmers were given billions to offset losses from a trade war with China.</li><li>Farmers are “for a little while going to be hurt, until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” Trump said. “Ultimately, the farmers are going to be making a fortune,” he added.</li></ul>

“We’re going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers,” Trump said at the White House.Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said the administration is weighing an aid program, opens new tab modeled after the approach taken by the previous Trump administration, when farmers were given billions to offset losses from a trade war with China.Farmers are “for a little while going to be hurt, until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” Trump said. “Ultimately, the farmers are going to be making a fortune,” he added.

Has Copper found its Bottom? // Trump: Farmers will get Tariff-Money as Cashback?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Copper prices surged from around $10,000 to $10,350 per metric ton due to a longer and more severe outage than expected at the Grasberg mine.</li><li>The disruption in production is expected to result in a 200,000 metric ton shortfall in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a further 270,000 metric ton loss in 2026.</li><li>The impact of the supply shortage has flipped the refined copper market from a surplus to a significant deficit, leading to a bullish outlook and a projected price increase to $11,250 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Copper prices surged from around $10,000 to $10,350 per metric ton due to a longer and more severe outage than expected at the Grasberg mine.The disruption in production is expected to result in a 200,000 metric ton shortfall in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a further 270,000 metric ton loss in 2026.The impact of the supply shortage has flipped the refined copper market from a surplus to a significant deficit, leading to a bullish outlook and a projected price increase to $11,250 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.</li>
<li>Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.</li>
<li>Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.</li>
</ul>


Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper Finding Its Pulse in the Fog Of (Hitherto) Weak Demand

Global copper demand is rebounding, leading to a projected deficit in 2026. A weaker dollar and Fed easing are boosting commodity prospects, with...

Mint Finance

From London to Beijing

Turbulent macro backdrop with concerns over US-China trade relations and credit quality affecting global economy and metals demand Mixed...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Has Copper found its Bottom? // Trump: Farmers will get Tariff-Money as Cashback?

Farmers are “for a little while going to be hurt, until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” Trump said. “Ultimately, the farmers...

The Commodity Report

Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity

Copper prices surged due to a prolonged outage at a mine, resulting in a significant loss of production and a shift from surplus to deficit, with...

At Any Rate

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper Finding Its Pulse in the Fog Of (Hitherto) Weak Demand

​Global copper demand is rebounding, leading to a projected deficit in 2026. A weaker dollar and Fed easing are boosting commodity prospects, with...

Mint Finance

From London to Beijing

Turbulent macro backdrop with concerns over US-China trade relations and credit quality affecting global economy and metals demand Mixed...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Has Copper found its Bottom? // Trump: Farmers will get Tariff-Money as Cashback?

Farmers are “for a little while going to be hurt, until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” Trump said. “Ultimately, the farmers...

The Commodity Report

Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity

Copper prices surged due to a prolonged outage at a mine, resulting in a significant loss of production and a shift from surplus to deficit, with...

At Any Rate

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

​Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Global copper demand is rebounding, leading to a projected deficit in 2026. A weaker dollar and Fed easing are boosting commodity prospects, with...

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.