European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ECP lowers its initial offer to 410p/share in cash plus the final dividend of 4.69p/share (28% premium, implied equity value is €1,269 million, implied EV is €1,847 million).</li>
<li>The offer represents 1.2x EV/Fwd revenue, 8.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 32.1x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My updated fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 410.6p.</li>
<li>The equity value prior to approach was undemanding. The offer price seems fair. Gross spread (including final dividend) is 2.1%. Reiterate <strong>Long BIFF LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


ECP lowers its initial offer to 410p/share in cash plus the final dividend of 4.69p/share (28% premium, implied equity value is €1,269 million, implied EV is €1,847 million).
The offer represents 1.2x EV/Fwd revenue, 8.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 32.1x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My updated fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 410.6p.
The equity value prior to approach was undemanding. The offer price seems fair. Gross spread (including final dividend) is 2.1%. Reiterate Long BIFF LN.


Biffa Accepts Lowered Bid from Energy Capital Partners

<ul>
<li>ECP offers 445p/share (37% premium, implied equity value is €1,361 million, implied EV is €1,939 million), subject to satisfactory due diligence. PUSU deadline is 5 July.</li>
<li>The offer represents 1.3x EV/Fwd revenue, <strong>8.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA</strong> and 28.4x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 426p.</li>
<li>The equity value prior to approach was undemanding, and the shares are escaping the market sell-off. Gross spread as of 13 June is 8.9%. Recommendation is long BIFF LN.</li>
</ul>


ECP offers 445p/share (37% premium, implied equity value is €1,361 million, implied EV is €1,939 million), subject to satisfactory due diligence. PUSU deadline is 5 July.
The offer represents 1.3x EV/Fwd revenue, 8.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 28.4x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 426p.
The equity value prior to approach was undemanding, and the shares are escaping the market sell-off. Gross spread as of 13 June is 8.9%. Recommendation is long BIFF LN.


Energy Capital Partners/Biffa: Takeover Approach

United Kingdom

Biffa PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers waste management services such as waste collection, treatment, recycling, and disposal services. Biffa serves industrial, commercial, and municipal sectors throughout the United Kingdom.

Biffa (BIFF LN)

Biffa Accepts Lowered Bid from Energy Capital Partners

Biffa has agreed to a lowered offer. The share price has increased by 28% and the market seems satisfied. The equity value prior to approach was...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Energy Capital Partners/Biffa: Takeover Approach

Biffa would be “minded to recommend” the 445p/share proposal to shareholders if ECP were to make a firm offer at that price. PUSU deadline is 5 July.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar