European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

On 21 October, Bloomberg reported that Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLC and other undisclosed private equity firms expressed interest in acquiring German industrial service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilfinger-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21630:1" rel="noopener">Bilfinger SE (GBF GR)</a>.
On 6 November, Bloomberg reported that Bilfinger launched a sale process and hired an adviser to formally gauge buyout interest. Certain prospective private equity buyers reportedly are looking to take over and expand Bilfinger through acquisitions and eventually take the larger entity public. Bilfinger has not yet finalized its plans and could still decide against a sale.
Bilfinger has released Q3 results, the shares have dropped 7.5%.
I value Bilfinger as a SOTP: using comparable companies, the average of the median implied EV/Forward EBITDA and Forward P/E is €20.62 per share, plus the BV of Apleona, €5.95 per share (€240 mn vs. Bilfinger's market cap of €899 mn), gives a total of €26.57 per share.
<ul>
<li>So either the market is very pessimistic about the growth and margins recovery of Bilfinger (for a reason) or the stake in Apleona comes for free.</li>
<li>Both the ongoing takeover speculation and the potential sale of Apleona currently seem to be the main drivers for the share price, but both are factors beyond the control of Bilfinger's management. Results remain challenging due to weakness in the markets where Bilfinger operates, but cost controls and higher FCF are positives.</li>
</ul>
Recommendation: BUY on SOTP higher than the current market value.
The Insight is marked bullish, although it comes with a health warning.

On 21 October, Bloomberg reported that Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLC and other undisclosed private equity firms expressed interest in acquiring German industrial service provider Bilfinger SE (GBF GR).
On 6 November, Bloomberg reported that Bilfinger launched a sale process and hired an adviser to formally gauge buyout interest. Certain prospective private equity buyers reportedly are looking to take over and expand Bilfinger through acquisitions and eventually take the larger entity public. Bilfinger has not yet finalized its plans and could still decide against a sale.
Bilfinger has released Q3 results, the shares have dropped 7.5%.
I value Bilfinger as a SOTP: using comparable companies, the average of the median implied EV/Forward EBITDA and Forward P/E is €20.62 per share, plus the BV of Apleona, €5.95 per share (€240 mn vs. Bilfinger's market cap of €899 mn), gives a total of €26.57 per share.

So either the market is very pessimistic about the growth and margins recovery of Bilfinger (for a reason) or the stake in Apleona comes for free.
Both the ongoing takeover speculation and the potential sale of Apleona currently seem to be the main drivers for the share price, but both are factors beyond the control of Bilfinger's management. Results remain challenging due to weakness in the markets where Bilfinger operates, but cost controls and higher FCF are positives.

Recommendation: BUY on SOTP higher than the current market value.
The Insight is marked bullish, although it comes with a health warning.

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise, stay sellers of container shipping <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/010/438/original/HLAPMM1.jpg?1468828073" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="10438"></figure> Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise<ul><li><ul>
<li>
This morning Hapag Lloyd issued a negative outlook adjustment , “The revised expectation of the Executive Board is a clearly decreasing EBITDA and a clearly decreasing EBIT compared with previous year.” 
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<li>
Key reasons for the revised outlook were as below, <ul>
<li>Development of freight rates is significantly weaker than expected.</li>
<li>
Recovery at beginning of July doesn’t…</li>
</ul>
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</ul></li></ul>

DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise, stay sellers of container shipping  Hapag Lloyd negative warning not a surprise

This morning Hapag Lloyd issued a negative outlook adjustment , “The revised expectation of the Executive Board is a clearly decreasing EBITDA and a clearly decreasing EBIT compared with previous year.” 


Key reasons for the revised outlook were as below, 
Development of freight rates is significantly weaker than expected.

Recovery at beginning of July doesn’t…




DMER Shorts - Hapag Lloyd Negative Warning Not a Surprise, Stay Sellers of Container Shipping

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis, production grew by 2% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a rise of 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016. It grew 1.1% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in April 2016 compared to 1.6% y-o-y in March 2016.In terms of industry segments, electricity &amp; utilities increased 1.8% y-o-y in April 2016 after having recorded negative…

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis, production grew by 2% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a rise of 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016. It grew 1.1% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in April 2016 compared to 1.6% y-o-y in March 2016.In terms of industry segments, electricity &amp; utilities increased 1.8% y-o-y in April 2016 after having recorded negative…

Eurozone: Industrial Production Revives Across Most Sectors and Countries in April

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Germany

Bilfinger SE provides industrial services, power services, building and facility services, construction, and concessions.  The Company's industrial services include repairs, maintenance, and modernization.  Bilfinger also provides power services which include maintenance, service, and efficiency enhancements as well as building and facility services for real estate.

Bilfinger SE (GBF GR)

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