Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology Holdings (STX US)</a> are the top 3 addition candidates with ALNY at the top.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cdw-corp-de" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2244:1" rel="noopener">CDW Corp (CDW US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1" rel="noopener">Biogen (BIIB US)</a> are the top 3 deletion candidates with GFS at the bottom.</li>
<li>Versant (VSNT) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) are estimated to be deleted following completion of their spinoffs with the earliest one expected on 30 October 2025.</li>
</ul>



Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX US) are the top 3 addition candidates with ALNY at the top.

GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US), CDW Corp (CDW US) and Biogen (BIIB US) are the top 3 deletion candidates with GFS at the bottom.
Versant (VSNT) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) are estimated to be deleted following completion of their spinoffs with the earliest one expected on 30 October 2025.


Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongodb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26655:1" rel="noopener">MongoDB (MDB US)</a> is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopify-inc-de74469e-4678-489b-9b50-a80a5790c5ef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1" rel="noopener">Shopify (SHOP US)</a> is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebay-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1291:1" rel="noopener">eBay Inc (EBAY US)</a> are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a> by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



MongoDB (MDB US) is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.

Shopify (SHOP US) is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and eBay Inc (EBAY US) are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.


MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> is <em>not </em>an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equinix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17409:1" rel="noopener">Equinix Inc (EQIX US)</a> is <em>not </em>an expected addition because it is a REIT.</li>
</ul>



Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.

ARM Holdings (ARM US) is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. Equinix Inc (EQIX US) is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

United States

Biogen Inc. develops, manufactures, and commercializes therapies, focusing on neurology, oncology, and immunology. The Company's products address diseases such as multiple sclerosis, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease, and psoriasis.

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Biogen Inc (BIIB US)

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

SOLS was deleted from the index at the close of 6 Nov following Honeywell’s spinoff. VSNT is still expected to be removed but Comcast’s spinoff has...

Dimitris Ioannidis

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

MDB is set to be removed from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to its low index weighting, with SHOP expected to replace it. ALNY and EBAY are potential...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

F1: 100%. All of the forecasts matched the index changes announced at the close of Friday 13 December. SMCI fell more than 11% in premarket trading...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

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