Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 31 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.</li>
</ul>


As expected, DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) replaces Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 31 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) at the close of trading on 31 March.

DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.


KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

<ul>
<li>Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.</li>
<li>Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. </li>
<li>Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.</li>
</ul>


Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. 
Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.


Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.</li>
<li>They include Align Partners Capital Management, KCGI, Flashlight Capital Partners, Truston, and LIFE Asset Management.</li>
<li>Share prices of 15 companies that the corporate activist firms have invested in Korea are up on average 9.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 7.1% in the same period.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.
They include Align Partners Capital Management, KCGI, Flashlight Capital Partners, Truston, and LIFE Asset Management.
Share prices of 15 companies that the corporate activist firms have invested in Korea are up on average 9.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is up 7.1% in the same period.


Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&amp;A session with both the investors community and the media today.</li>
<li>Align Partners' corporate activism of the Korean banks has been one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market this year.</li>
<li>The Korean banks are likely to outperform the market in 1H23. Nonetheless, if there are further signs of housing price declines in Korea, this outperformance may not continue in 2H23. </li>
</ul>


Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&amp;A session with both the investors community and the media today.
Align Partners' corporate activism of the Korean banks has been one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market this year.
The Korean banks are likely to outperform the market in 1H23. Nonetheless, if there are further signs of housing price declines in Korea, this outperformance may not continue in 2H23. 


Align Partners' Corporate Activism on Korean Banks: A Media Presentation and Q&A Session

South Korea

BNK Financial Group Inc. a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services. The Company's main businesses include banking, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

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Bnk Financial Group (138930 KS)

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

DGB Financial will be added to the KOSPI200 Index on 31 March. The stock trades cheaper than its peers but becomes short sell eligible from the...

Brian Freitas

Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing...

Douglas Kim

Five Most Aggressive Corporate Activists Moving the Korean Market: Align, KCGI, FCP, Truston, & LIFE

In this insight, we discuss the five most aggressive corporate activist firms that have been moving the Korean equity market in the past year.

Douglas Kim

Align Partners' Corporate Activism on Korean Banks: A Media Presentation and Q&A Session

Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&A session with both the investors community and the media today.

Douglas Kim

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