Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> results are most interesting, like with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> , for what they show on specific regions</li>
<li>STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY</li>
<li>Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta</li>
</ul>



Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta


STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

<ul>
<li>There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection</li>
<li>This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener"></a>ABC and BoCom.</li>
<li>Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs </li>
</ul>


There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection
This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs 


China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.</li>
<li>In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.</li>
<li>Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.</li>
</ul>


In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.
In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.
Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.


Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

<ul>
<li>There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions</li>
<li>China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year</li>
<li>Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments</li>
</ul>


There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions
China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year
Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments


HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Screening for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Asia Ex-Japan equity funds.</li>
<li>High Positioning, Positive Momentum: KE Holdings Ltd, Shriram Finance Limited     </li>
<li>Low Positioning, Negative Momentum: Baidu Inc, BOC Hong Kong Limited    </li>
</ul>


Screening for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Asia Ex-Japan equity funds.
High Positioning, Positive Momentum: KE Holdings Ltd, Shriram Finance Limited     
Low Positioning, Negative Momentum: Baidu Inc, BOC Hong Kong Limited    


Hong Kong

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited is an investment holding company providing banking and related financial services through its principal operating subsidiary, Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited (BOCHK). It offers a comprehensive range of financial, investment, and wealth management services to personal, corporate, and institutional customers, and is one of Hong Kong's three note-issuing banks and the sole Renminbi clearing bank. The company was incorporated in Hong Kong on September 12, 2001, and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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BOC Hong Kong (2388 HK)

STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered shows significant deterioration in quarterly credit costs, worsening in Hong Kong region credit costs, and in Grade 12 loans

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Ex-Japan: Extreme Stocks

Screening for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Asia Ex-Japan equity funds.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered shows significant deterioration in quarterly credit costs, worsening in Hong Kong region credit costs, and in Grade 12 loans

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

​In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Ex-Japan: Extreme Stocks

Screening for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Asia Ex-Japan equity funds.

Steven Holden

In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...