Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Exchanges, especially in developed markets, continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading and transaction-based fees which has led to a mini-boom in exchange-driven M&amp;A targeting diversification</li>
<li>We use data and IT revenues as a proxy for “stickier” potentially recurring revenues in four DM and three EM exchanges, concluding that DM exchanges are under more diversification pressure</li>
<li>We identify three buy opportunities in exchanges; we like Hong Kong Exchange, Deutsche Borse and we add Nasdaq, whilst we are negative on Coinbase which remains the exchange to avoid</li>
</ul>


Exchanges, especially in developed markets, continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading and transaction-based fees which has led to a mini-boom in exchange-driven M&amp;A targeting diversification
We use data and IT revenues as a proxy for “stickier” potentially recurring revenues in four DM and three EM exchanges, concluding that DM exchanges are under more diversification pressure
We identify three buy opportunities in exchanges; we like Hong Kong Exchange, Deutsche Borse and we add Nasdaq, whilst we are negative on Coinbase which remains the exchange to avoid


Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

<ul>
<li>We stick with our core theme for exchanges of growing post-trading revenues, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services, as we head into 2023</li>
<li>We identify four relative value opportunities in exchanges; HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams</li>
<li>We stick with Coinbase as the exchange to avoid, in our view; its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions, and recent events highlight counterparty risk</li>
</ul>


We stick with our core theme for exchanges of growing post-trading revenues, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services, as we head into 2023
We identify four relative value opportunities in exchanges; HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams
We stick with Coinbase as the exchange to avoid, in our view; its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions, and recent events highlight counterparty risk


Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023

<ul>
<li>Exchanges continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading fees in post-trading, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services</li>
<li>We identify three relative value opportunities in exchanges; MexBolsa, B3 and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams</li>
<li>Coinbase remains the exchange to avoid, in our view, despite its share price collapse; aside from negative news-flow, its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions</li>
</ul>


Exchanges continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading fees in post-trading, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services
We identify three relative value opportunities in exchanges; MexBolsa, B3 and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams
Coinbase remains the exchange to avoid, in our view, despite its share price collapse; aside from negative news-flow, its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions


Global Exchanges – The Quest for Recurring Revenues

<ul>
<li>Global exchanges are adapting to a more price pressured environment in trading fees, including the growth of off-exchange trading</li>
<li>The most forward looking exchanges are actively diversifying their revenue base away from trading and transaction fees, and they are focusing on post-trade services, as well as monetising their access to “big data” and data flows</li>
<li>Select exchanges have accelerated their revenue diversification strategies through M&amp;A; two high profile examples are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intercontinental-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10221:1" rel="noopener">Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US)</a> acquiring Ellie Mae and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSE LN)</a> acquiring Refinitiv which, in part, reflects the attraction of the “big data” opportunity</li>
<li>The recent merger rumours within the exchanges sector between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cboe-global-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20189:1" rel="noopener">Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cme-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12353:1" rel="noopener">Cme Group Inc (CME US)</a> – even though this merger did not materialise – reflect the potential for cost savings and synergies from exchange mergers</li>
<li>In emerging markets, the shift away from trading revenues is also apparent, although the pace of change seems more measured due to regulatory constraints</li>
<li>Among developed market exchanges, we believe that ICE is the “poster child” on revenue transformation, and is not overly expensive on valuations, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-boerse-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21604:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Boerse Ag (DB1 GR)</a> being the value pick and we also find CBOE to be attractive; we believe that LSEG is still a “show me” story on Refinitiv integration, even if valuations are undemanding</li>
<li>In emerging markets, we believe that out-of-favour <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)</a> shares have potential to reverse the trend and re-rate on attractive valuations, with smaller cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bolsa-mexicana-de-valores-sab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24766:1" rel="noopener">Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM)</a> attractive on both its broad revenue mix and valuations; we are bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> shares, with the market overly positive on the exchange’s prospects, in our view</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> is one to watch; management has more to do to diversify the revenue base, yet its valuations are undemanding and competition concerns may be overdone</li>
<li>We include the listed crypto exchange <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> in this exchanges report for the first time; with its business model very geared towards trading and transaction fees, we are cautious on Coinbase given the very high volatility in both volumes and prices inherent in the world of crypto trading, as well as the regulatory hurdles</li>
<li>Risks to our positive views on B3, BolsaMex, ICE, CBOE and Deutsche Boerse include worse than expected post-trade and data and IT revenue generation as well as a more hostile regulatory climate; risks to our bearish views on HKEX and Coinbase are better than expected revenue and EBITDA growth</li>
</ul>


Global exchanges are adapting to a more price pressured environment in trading fees, including the growth of off-exchange trading
The most forward looking exchanges are actively diversifying their revenue base away from trading and transaction fees, and they are focusing on post-trade services, as well as monetising their access to “big data” and data flows
Select exchanges have accelerated their revenue diversification strategies through M&amp;A; two high profile examples are Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US) acquiring Ellie Mae and London Stock Exchange (LSE LN) acquiring Refinitiv which, in part, reflects the attraction of the “big data” opportunity
The recent merger rumours within the exchanges sector between Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US) &amp; Cme Group Inc (CME US) – even though this merger did not materialise – reflect the potential for cost savings and synergies from exchange mergers
In emerging markets, the shift away from trading revenues is also apparent, although the pace of change seems more measured due to regulatory constraints
Among developed market exchanges, we believe that ICE is the “poster child” on revenue transformation, and is not overly expensive on valuations, with Deutsche Boerse Ag (DB1 GR) being the value pick and we also find CBOE to be attractive; we believe that LSEG is still a “show me” story on Refinitiv integration, even if valuations are undemanding
In emerging markets, we believe that out-of-favour B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ) shares have potential to reverse the trend and re-rate on attractive valuations, with smaller cap Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM) attractive on both its broad revenue mix and valuations; we are bearish on HKEX (388 HK) shares, with the market overly positive on the exchange’s prospects, in our view

SGX (SGX SP) is one to watch; management has more to do to diversify the revenue base, yet its valuations are undemanding and competition concerns may be overdone
We include the listed crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN US) in this exchanges report for the first time; with its business model very geared towards trading and transaction fees, we are cautious on Coinbase given the very high volatility in both volumes and prices inherent in the world of crypto trading, as well as the regulatory hurdles
Risks to our positive views on B3, BolsaMex, ICE, CBOE and Deutsche Boerse include worse than expected post-trade and data and IT revenue generation as well as a more hostile regulatory climate; risks to our bearish views on HKEX and Coinbase are better than expected revenue and EBITDA growth


Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

<ul>
<li>In this report, we look at how global exchanges are positioning themselves to diversify revenue streams beyond the traditional</li>
<li>Select exchanges in developed markets are actively focusing in on demand for exchanges’ proprietary data, a few are enhancing their data capabilities through M&amp;A</li>
<li>Emerging market exchanges are at a different stage of development, with more potential for new listings and growth in trading fees, but we believe that they still need to prepare for life beyond the traditional revenue model</li>
<li>In LatAm, B3 stands out as a beneficiary of the recent sharp cuts in domestic benchmark rates and rise in trading activity, but we believe that much of this is already reflected in B3’s recent share price re-rating, and that B3 is at risk of a trading downturn, with it yet to develop its data and related services revenue buffer; we prefer smaller cap Bolsa Mexicana
</li>
<li>In Asia, we like SGX which derives a higher share of revenues from data services than HK Exchange, and we also believe that SGX is less exposed than HKEx to prospective EBITDA margin erosion; Bursa Malaysia valuations seem stretched, in our view</li>
<li>In developed market exchanges, LSE Group is in the spotlight for its planned acquisition of Refinitiv, and its already high revenue share of data services, along with ICE and TMX of Canada; we highlight ICE for its attractive valuation, healthy EBITDA margin and its high share of revenue from data services</li>
<li>Risks to our negative view on B3 include continued high levels of trading in equities, derivatives supported by further central bank rate cuts and better-than-expected opex control; risks to our positive views on Bolsa Mexicana, ICE include weaker than expected trading activity and fewer than expected new listings</li>
</ul>


In this report, we look at how global exchanges are positioning themselves to diversify revenue streams beyond the traditional
Select exchanges in developed markets are actively focusing in on demand for exchanges’ proprietary data, a few are enhancing their data capabilities through M&amp;A
Emerging market exchanges are at a different stage of development, with more potential for new listings and growth in trading fees, but we believe that they still need to prepare for life beyond the traditional revenue model
In LatAm, B3 stands out as a beneficiary of the recent sharp cuts in domestic benchmark rates and rise in trading activity, but we believe that much of this is already reflected in B3’s recent share price re-rating, and that B3 is at risk of a trading downturn, with it yet to develop its data and related services revenue buffer; we prefer smaller cap Bolsa Mexicana

In Asia, we like SGX which derives a higher share of revenues from data services than HK Exchange, and we also believe that SGX is less exposed than HKEx to prospective EBITDA margin erosion; Bursa Malaysia valuations seem stretched, in our view
In developed market exchanges, LSE Group is in the spotlight for its planned acquisition of Refinitiv, and its already high revenue share of data services, along with ICE and TMX of Canada; we highlight ICE for its attractive valuation, healthy EBITDA margin and its high share of revenue from data services
Risks to our negative view on B3 include continued high levels of trading in equities, derivatives supported by further central bank rate cuts and better-than-expected opex control; risks to our positive views on Bolsa Mexicana, ICE include weaker than expected trading activity and fewer than expected new listings


Mexico

Bolsa Mexicana de Valores SAB de CV operates full service cash and derivatives exchanges, with equities and fixed income securities listings. The Group offers fully electronic platforms for cash equities, financial derivatives and OTC fixed income and derivatives. Bolsa Mexicana's post trade activities include central counterparts and clearing services.

Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM)

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Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM)

Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

We select, as our buys, Nasdaq for its focused diversification strategy, Deutsche Boerse for its relative value versus peers and HKEX for its GARP...

Victor Galliano

Global Exchanges – Conviction Picks for 2023

Our 2023 picks of HKEx, LSEG, MexBolsa and Deutsche Borse feature positively multiple times in our value screens and they are all diversifying...

Victor Galliano

Global Exchanges – The Quest for Recurring Revenues

We identify MexBolsa, B3 and Deutsche Borse as exchanges that feature positively multiple times in our value screens and that are diversifying away...

Victor Galliano

Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

We assess exchanges based on revenue mix ex-trading; the poster child is ICE, other attractive stocks are Deutsche Borse, CBOE, B3 & BolsaMex, with...

Victor Galliano

Exchanges: Life Beyond Trading

In this report, we look at how global exchanges are positioning themselves to diversify revenue streams beyond the traditional Select exchanges in...

Victor Galliano

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