Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>While the short-selling ban for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.</li>
<li>Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.</li>
<li>Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.</li>
</ul>


While the short-selling ban for the KOSPI 200 INDEX will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.
Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.
Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/green-cross-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2969:1" rel="noopener">Green Cross (006280 KS)</a> has gained access to 80% of privately insured members in the U.S. for blood product Alyglo, which has been included in formularies of three major insurers.</li>
<li>Green Cross targets to generate $50M revenue from Alyglo this year. The target seems to be conservative. The company further aims to sustain annual growth of 50%+, which is achievable.</li>
<li>The company reported sequential improvement in 2Q24, with 17% QoQ revenue growth and significant improvement in gross margin. Revenue growth of 7–8% is expected during 2024–2026.</li>
</ul>



Green Cross (006280 KS) has gained access to 80% of privately insured members in the U.S. for blood product Alyglo, which has been included in formularies of three major insurers.
Green Cross targets to generate $50M revenue from Alyglo this year. The target seems to be conservative. The company further aims to sustain annual growth of 50%+, which is achievable.
The company reported sequential improvement in 2Q24, with 17% QoQ revenue growth and significant improvement in gross margin. Revenue growth of 7–8% is expected during 2024–2026.


Green Cross (006280 KS): Alyglo Is Accelerating U.S. Market Entry; Base Business Shows Strength

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hk-inno-n-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33522:1" rel="noopener">HK inno.N (195940 KS)</a> is expected to see significant improvement in operating profit margin this year to 10.9% (vs. 8% in 2023).</li>
<li>Growing sales of flagship drug K-CAB, increasing capacity utilization in new IV fluids plant, and improving profitability of health and beauty products segment, will be three important margin drivers.</li>
<li>With accelerating global presence, HK inno is on track to achieve its target of entering 100 countries by 2028 and achieve global sales of KRW2 trillion ($1.4 billion) by 2030.</li>
</ul>



HK inno.N (195940 KS) is expected to see significant improvement in operating profit margin this year to 10.9% (vs. 8% in 2023).
Growing sales of flagship drug K-CAB, increasing capacity utilization in new IV fluids plant, and improving profitability of health and beauty products segment, will be three important margin drivers.
With accelerating global presence, HK inno is on track to achieve its target of entering 100 countries by 2028 and achieve global sales of KRW2 trillion ($1.4 billion) by 2030.


HK Inno.N (195940 KS): 2024 Will See Robust Profit Growth On Growing Momentum of Key Drug

Boryung Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boryung-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19265:1" rel="noopener">Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS)</a> reported 15% YoY growth in revenue to KRW208B, driven by 7% YoY growth in prescription drugs, the slowest growth in the last three years.</li>
<li>Prescription drug revenue growth slowed due to the huge shortfall in revenue from the diabetes drug Trulicity caused by supply shortage. We expect slowdown in Trulicity revenue is temporary.  </li>
<li>Despite losing patent protection in February 2023 on ARB monotherapy, Kanarb drug family is showing no fatigue due to increasing preference for combination drugs in the market.  </li>
</ul>


In 3Q23, Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS) reported 15% YoY growth in revenue to KRW208B, driven by 7% YoY growth in prescription drugs, the slowest growth in the last three years.
Prescription drug revenue growth slowed due to the huge shortfall in revenue from the diabetes drug Trulicity caused by supply shortage. We expect slowdown in Trulicity revenue is temporary.  
Despite losing patent protection in February 2023 on ARB monotherapy, Kanarb drug family is showing no fatigue due to increasing preference for combination drugs in the market.  


Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Prescription Drugs Took a Breather in Q3; Poised to Rebound

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Kum Yang and Youlchon Chemical are within the borderline for inclusion, whereas Hwaseung Enterprise and K Car are in the deletion zone.</li>
<li>Since the review period has reached 75%, it seems reasonable to consider a somewhat aggressive buildup for them.</li>
<li>We can also consider setting up preemptive positions only for Kum Yang and Hwaseung Enterprise and then sequentially look for entry opportunities for Youlchon and K Car later on.</li>
</ul>



Kum Yang and Youlchon Chemical are within the borderline for inclusion, whereas Hwaseung Enterprise and K Car are in the deletion zone.
Since the review period has reached 75%, it seems reasonable to consider a somewhat aggressive buildup for them.
We can also consider setting up preemptive positions only for Kum Yang and Hwaseung Enterprise and then sequentially look for entry opportunities for Youlchon and K Car later on.


Names for a Preemptive Long Short Setup for KOSPI 200 June Rebalancing

South Korea

Boryung Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. produces over-the-counter medical drugs. The Company specializes in producing medicines in the fields of hypertension treatment and anti-viral.

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Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS)

EQD | KOSPI 200 May Pullback Soon...

Pullbacks on the KOSPI 200 INDEX are currently a buy opportunity, given the short-selling ban still in place. We predict a short-term WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

Green Cross (006280 KS): Alyglo Is Accelerating U.S. Market Entry; Base Business Shows Strength

Green Cross gains access to 80% of privately insured members in the U.S. for its maiden blood product Alyglo. The company is targeting a...

Tina Banerjee

HK Inno.N (195940 KS): 2024 Will See Robust Profit Growth On Growing Momentum of Key Drug

HK inno will see significant improvement in op. margin this year, riding on growing sales of K-CAB, increasing capacity utilization in new IV fluid...

Tina Banerjee