Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.</li>
<li>Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.</li>
<li>BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.
Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.
BP's Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.


[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

<ul>
<li>BP set to report its Q4 and 2024 earnings on 11/Feb, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively.</li>
<li>As of 06/Feb, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 35.21%, with an IV rank of 82.9% and an IV percentile of 99%.</li>
<li>BP's OI by strike for the 07/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 31.5, 32, and 32.5, while puts dominate at 29.5, 30, and 30.5.</li>
</ul>


BP set to report its Q4 and 2024 earnings on 11/Feb, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively.
As of 06/Feb, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 35.21%, with an IV rank of 82.9% and an IV percentile of 99%.
BP's OI by strike for the 07/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 31.5, 32, and 32.5, while puts dominate at 29.5, 30, and 30.5.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Optimism Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Japanese IDMs are increasing global investments, while the US keeps a close eye on China's chip industry to adjust supply chains.</li><li>Compal Electronics introduces a new liquid cooling solution for effective cooling of electronic devices.</li><li>Google enhances AI visual generation with Veo 2, Imagen 3, and Whisk, while Innolux focuses on FOPLP and Lam boosts fab efficiency with collaborative robots.</li></ul>

Japanese IDMs are increasing global investments, while the US keeps a close eye on China's chip industry to adjust supply chains.Compal Electronics introduces a new liquid cooling solution for effective cooling of electronic devices.Google enhances AI visual generation with Veo 2, Imagen 3, and Whisk, while Innolux focuses on FOPLP and Lam boosts fab efficiency with collaborative robots.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Dec-2024): Japanese IDMs' global investment plans.

<ul>
<li>BP’s revenue declined 11.3% YoY, missing estimates by 4.3%, while EPS fell 27.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3.8%. Underlying net profit dropped 31.2% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.</li>
<li>BP’s Q3 performance was impacted by weak oil prices, lower refining margins, and soft trading results, leading to its lowest underlying net profit since Q3 2020.</li>
<li>Total upstream production rose 3% YoY, with liquids production up 5%. BP also achieved 80% YoY growth in its EV charging business, selling 1 terawatt-hour of electricity globally.</li>
</ul>


BP’s revenue declined 11.3% YoY, missing estimates by 4.3%, while EPS fell 27.8% YoY, beating estimates by 3.8%. Underlying net profit dropped 31.2% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.
BP’s Q3 performance was impacted by weak oil prices, lower refining margins, and soft trading results, leading to its lowest underlying net profit since Q3 2020.
Total upstream production rose 3% YoY, with liquids production up 5%. BP also achieved 80% YoY growth in its EV charging business, selling 1 terawatt-hour of electricity globally.


[Earnings Review] BP Posts Worst Earnings Since Q3 2020 as Weak Oil Prices Hit Margins

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Optimism Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

BP's Q4 earnings expected to decline, high implied volatility and options activity suggest mixed sentiment among investors.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Dec-2024): Japanese IDMs' global investment plans.

Japanese IDMs expand globally, US watches China's chip industry, Compal Electronics introduces liquid cooling, Google enhances AI visuals, Innolux...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

[Earnings Review] BP Posts Worst Earnings Since Q3 2020 as Weak Oil Prices Hit Margins

BP fell 5.4% on 29/Oct after reporting its lowest earnings since Q3 2020, with revenue and profit hit by weak crude prices and falling refining...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] BP Reports Weakest Profit Since 2020, but Elliott’s Stake Sparks a Rally

​BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] BP’s OI PCR Signals Optimism Despite Bleak Q4 Outlook

​BP's Q4 earnings expected to decline, high implied volatility and options activity suggest mixed sentiment among investors.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Dec-2024): Japanese IDMs' global investment plans.

Japanese IDMs expand globally, US watches China's chip industry, Compal Electronics introduces liquid cooling, Google enhances AI visuals, Innolux...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

[Earnings Review] BP Posts Worst Earnings Since Q3 2020 as Weak Oil Prices Hit Margins

BP fell 5.4% on 29/Oct after reporting its lowest earnings since Q3 2020, with revenue and profit hit by weak crude prices and falling refining...

Mint Finance

BP's revenue and EPS decline, Elliott acquires stake in BP, pushing for focus on fossil fuels, cash flow drops but announces share buyback.

BP's Q4 earnings expected to decline, high implied volatility and options activity suggest mixed sentiment among investors.

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...