Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 </a>with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/saudi-aramco-value-tn-maybe-not" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8177">Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not!</a> my…

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not! my…

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

<div class="content-highlight">As International Oil Companies (IOC) have now published their FY2016 results, let's compare their level of oil and gas production to see which one is best positioned if our world has to move away from oil (and coal) to gas, the cleanest fossil fuel (and renewable).</div><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/237/original/2016%20HC%20production.JPG?1487582898" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21237"></figure>Source: company data, thierrybros.com
</div><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23749" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a>'s hydrocarbon production increased by 1% thanks to an 8% increase in oil. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23749" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> is the biggest listed hydrocarbon producer but more importantly, with gas…</li></ul>

As International Oil Companies (IOC) have now published their FY2016 results, let's compare their level of oil and gas production to see which one is best positioned if our world has to move away from oil (and coal) to gas, the cleanest fossil fuel (and renewable).
Source: company data, thierrybros.com

Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)'s hydrocarbon production increased by 1% thanks to an 8% increase in oil. Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) is the biggest listed hydrocarbon producer but more importantly, with gas…

Are International Oil Companies Adapting to Climate Change Challenges?

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return <ul><li>Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. </li><li>For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. </li><li>We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. </li></ul>

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. 

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

LNG, Oil & Gas, M&A Market Intelligence Specialist

Massimo Bellino

This report covers: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/811" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1">Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1">Chevron Corp (CVX US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22108" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22108:1">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21847" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21847:1">BP PLC (BP/ LN EQUITY)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/812" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1">Total Sa (FP FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21030" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21030:1">Statoil ASA (STL NO)</a>A challenging year-end quarter. Oil majors posted disappointing 4Q16 results which surprised the markets on the downside. With the exception of Total, the peer group missed brokers’ expectations both on the earnings and the revenue estimates. Impairment charges negatively impacted Exxon and Statoil, respectively for $2bn and $2.3bn…

This report covers: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM US), Chevron Corp (CVX US), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN), BP PLC (BP/ LN EQUITY), Total Sa (FP FP), Statoil ASA (STL NO)A challenging year-end quarter. Oil majors posted disappointing 4Q16 results which surprised the markets on the downside. With the exception of Total, the peer group missed brokers’ expectations both on the earnings and the revenue estimates. Impairment charges negatively impacted Exxon and Statoil, respectively for $2bn and $2.3bn…

Oil Majors 4Q16 Results: After a Difficult 2016, Sentiment Turning Positive for 2017

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/energy-who-could-benefit-from-brexit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8488">Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?</a>, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, Trafigura or Vitol) would be able to take advantage of the increased volatility and spread" and "some LNG producers close to Europe and LNG portfolio players would be able to arbitrage the EU vs the UK". Since this publication, Trafigura is seeking to reopen an LNG import terminal in the UK. Enjoy a short updated <a href="https://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en#206316" target="_blank">webcast</a>, where I reiterate the 3…

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Trafigura or Vitol) would be able to take advantage of the increased volatility and spread" and "some LNG producers close to Europe and LNG portfolio players would be able to arbitrage the EU vs the UK". Since this publication, Trafigura is seeking to reopen an LNG import terminal in the UK. Enjoy a short updated webcast, where I reiterate the 3…

Independent Trading Houses to Benefit from Brexit

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Are International Oil Companies Adapting to Climate Change Challenges?

As International Oil Companies (IOC) have now published their FY2016 results, let's compare their level of oil and gas production to see which one...

Thierry Bros, PhD

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Oil Majors 4Q16 Results: After a Difficult 2016, Sentiment Turning Positive for 2017

This report covers: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM US), Chevron Corp (CVX US), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN), BP PLC (BP/ LN EQUITY), Total Sa (FP FP),...

Massimo Bellino

Independent Trading Houses to Benefit from Brexit

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like Glencore Plc (GLEN...

Thierry Bros, PhD

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