Equity Analyst, TMT & Energy Specialist

HL Tan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?<ul><li>
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…</li></ul>

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance for unexpected surges in risk-aversion is all the more merited given some signals that the flood of ever-greater liquidity from developed country central banks may soon be peaking.If unconventional policy bears diminishing returns, as cautioned recently in reports from the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/060815.pdf" target="_blank">IMF</a> (citing spillover risks) and <a href="http://www.bis.org/publ/work570.pdf" target="_blank">BIS</a>, it may be possible that either risks associated with over-accommodation or the more manageable risks of exit will inevitably drive volatility higher.  We take stock of some of the most obvious event risks, as well as risks not yet associated with a specific event or events that might also emerge as catalysts in latter 2016, and their potential impact on currency and asset markets.

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance for unexpected surges in risk-aversion is all the more merited given some signals that the flood of ever-greater liquidity from developed country central banks may soon be peaking.If unconventional policy bears diminishing returns, as cautioned recently in reports from the IMF (citing spillover risks) and BIS, it may be possible that either risks associated with over-accommodation or the more manageable risks of exit will inevitably drive volatility higher.  We take stock of some of the most obvious event risks, as well as risks not yet associated with a specific event or events that might also emerge as catalysts in latter 2016, and their potential impact on currency and asset markets.

Event Risks, Catalysts and Volatility in Latter 2016

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a>, for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US), for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

<header class="entry-header"><h2>Commodity fundamentals – actionable insight from CRB’s Fundamental Database</h2></header>ClearMacro is delighted to announce a collaboration with Barcharts/CRB to derive signals from fundamental commodity supply, production and consumption data.We care about generating actionable market insight from information categories that a sophisticated investor cares about.  Commodity markets require tailored information to help investors generate outlook views across energy, metals, and agricultural markets.We focus…

Commodity fundamentals – actionable insight from CRB’s Fundamental DatabaseClearMacro is delighted to announce a collaboration with Barcharts/CRB to derive signals from fundamental commodity supply, production and consumption data.We care about generating actionable market insight from information categories that a sophisticated investor cares about.  Commodity markets require tailored information to help investors generate outlook views across energy, metals, and agricultural markets.We focus…

Commodities - Is There Any Value Within the Complex?

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some of the strategic implications for equity investors in terms of the potential shifts in sovereign and corporate governance.

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some of the strategic implications for equity investors in terms of the potential shifts in sovereign and corporate governance.

United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

Oil Price - OPEC Deal or No Deal?

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production...

HL Tan

Event Risks, Catalysts and Volatility in Latter 2016

The UK’s referendum to exit Europe and the ensuing gyrations in global markets warned us against complacency in the face of event risk. Vigilance...

Naomi Fink

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical...

Charles De Trenck

Commodities - Is There Any Value Within the Complex?

Commodity fundamentals – actionable insight from CRB’s Fundamental DatabaseClearMacro is delighted to announce a collaboration with Barcharts/CRB...

ClearMacro

Brexit; Unintended Consequences

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some...

John-Paul Smith

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