ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/134" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:134:1">Bank Pmbngn Daerh Jawa Brt Dn Btn Tbk Pt (BJBR IJ)</a> has a decent growth story (10% CAGR in PPOP/core profit), in our view.</li><li>Our biggest reservation is that BJBR's risk management under existing management is not tested long enough.</li><li>We derive GGM-based PT of Rp2,100/share (implying 11.4x/1.9x 2017 PE/PB), a 5% downside potential from current share price. </li><li>Hence, BJBR is fairly valued, in our opinion.</li></ul>

Bank Pmbngn Daerh Jawa Brt Dn Btn Tbk Pt (BJBR IJ) has a decent growth story (10% CAGR in PPOP/core profit), in our view.Our biggest reservation is that BJBR's risk management under existing management is not tested long enough.We derive GGM-based PT of Rp2,100/share (implying 11.4x/1.9x 2017 PE/PB), a 5% downside potential from current share price. Hence, BJBR is fairly valued, in our opinion.

Bank BJB: Decent Growth Story at Fair Valuation

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016.</li><li>Recent revenue shortfalls and consequent expenditure cuts by the government could impact growth prospects in the coming months; lower collections from tax amnesty scheme will likely add to fiscal woes.</li><li>With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3-5% in the near term, the central bank is likely to maintain an easing bias.</li></ul>

Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016.Recent revenue shortfalls and consequent expenditure cuts by the government could impact growth prospects in the coming months; lower collections from tax amnesty scheme will likely add to fiscal woes.With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3-5% in the near term, the central bank is likely to maintain an easing bias.

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.<div class="content-highlight">We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. </div>An…

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in Asia and the world. We look more closely at indebted companies unable to service loans; distribution of banks within Indonesia; and ability to absorb bad loans. Save to say, BCA, BTPN, BJBR and BMRI remain some of the more interesting banks in the region to us.We examine Indonesia’s non-financial companies interest coverage and debt levels. An…

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

Indonesia

PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk is a commercial bank. The bank offers a wide range of banking products and services.

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Bank BJB (BJBR IJ)

Bank BJB: Decent Growth Story at Fair Valuation

Bank Pmbngn Daerh Jawa Brt Dn Btn Tbk Pt (BJBR IJ) has a decent growth story (10% CAGR in PPOP/core profit), in our view. Our biggest reservation...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Marketnomix Insights : Indonesia

Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016. Recent...

Rajan Govil

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

Indonesia - Rising Bad Loans Not as Dire as Some Make Out

For sure NPLs are up in 1Q16 for Indonesia’s banks. But we are sanguine about the outlook for these banks, which rank well on most every measure in...

Daniel Tabbush

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