HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There could be investment opportunities for influenza vaccines due to supply-demand mismatch this year, but there is no long-term logic in this industry.</li>
<li>The NRDL adjustment in 2022 has been officially launched. We need to point out a change in favor of the primary drugs (or original drugs).</li>
<li>CXO's prosperity may have problems in the next few years. The point is that it is difficult to predict how long this “low momentum” would last if it comes.</li>
</ul>


There could be investment opportunities for influenza vaccines due to supply-demand mismatch this year, but there is no long-term logic in this industry.
The NRDL adjustment in 2022 has been officially launched. We need to point out a change in favor of the primary drugs (or original drugs).
CXO's prosperity may have problems in the next few years. The point is that it is difficult to predict how long this “low momentum” would last if it comes.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.8)- CXO Outlook, 2022 NRDL Adjustment, Logic of Influenza Vaccine

<ul>
<li>The NDRC issued the “14th Five-Year Plan For Bioeconomy”. This marks bio-economy has become a new economic form. With diversified resources and capital, a trillion-level market would develop rapidly.</li>
<li>The third centralized procurement in Fujian Province officially opened, involving five medical consumables. The bidding rule is milder than drugs VBP. Investors could pay more attention to medical device sector.</li>
<li>Akeso's 2021 PD-1 sales enlightened us that innovative drugs could still achieve good sales performance even without entering NRDL. So, companies could choose to give up NRDL negotiation strategically.</li>
</ul>


The NDRC issued the “14th Five-Year Plan For Bioeconomy”. This marks bio-economy has become a new economic form. With diversified resources and capital, a trillion-level market would develop rapidly.
The third centralized procurement in Fujian Province officially opened, involving five medical consumables. The bidding rule is milder than drugs VBP. Investors could pay more attention to medical device sector.
Akeso's 2021 PD-1 sales enlightened us that innovative drugs could still achieve good sales performance even without entering NRDL. So, companies could choose to give up NRDL negotiation strategically.


China Healthcare Weekly (May13)-New Bioeconomy Plan,Rational Withdrawal from NRDL,Medical Device VBP

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The National Health Commission of the PRC(NHC) published the revised covid treatment guideline yesterday which we think is a key step toward the adjustment of its  "zero covid" policy.</li>
<li>We believe the revised guideline is a significant step toward further easing China's covid strategy.</li>
<li>However we think China will not change its dynamic zero-covid policy any time soon.</li>
</ul>


The National Health Commission of the PRC(NHC) published the revised covid treatment guideline yesterday which we think is a key step toward the adjustment of its  "zero covid" policy.
We believe the revised guideline is a significant step toward further easing China's covid strategy.
However we think China will not change its dynamic zero-covid policy any time soon.


<ul>
<li>For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.</li>
<li>The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.</li>
<li>If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.</li>
</ul>


For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.
The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.
If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.


Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

<ul>
<li>The state has issued clear policies to support gene therapy and related products. Therefore, investors are advised to pay close attention to related companies.</li>
<li>It may not be that easy to forget last Monday's plunge in the healthcare sector in HKEX, which means one thing.</li>
<li>With the introduction of intensive policies, TCM injections will be subject to more and more restrictions.</li>
</ul>


The state has issued clear policies to support gene therapy and related products. Therefore, investors are advised to pay close attention to related companies.
It may not be that easy to forget last Monday's plunge in the healthcare sector in HKEX, which means one thing.
With the introduction of intensive policies, TCM injections will be subject to more and more restrictions.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.10) - Last Monday's Plunge, New Policy of Gene Therapy, TCM Injections

China

Brii Biosciences is a biotechnology company focused on developing therapies for infectious and central nervous system diseases. The company has a broad pipeline of therapeutic candidates, with lead programs targeting hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, and also develops treatments for multi-drug resistant bacterial infections. Brii Biosciences is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2017.

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Brii Biosciences (2137 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.8)- CXO Outlook, 2022 NRDL Adjustment, Logic of Influenza Vaccine

CXO's prosperity may have problems in the next few years. We analyzed the logic. There is no long-term logic for influenza vaccine. A change in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May13)-New Bioeconomy Plan,Rational Withdrawal from NRDL,Medical Device VBP

The 14th Five-Year Bioeconomy plan indicates a new economic form and a trillion-level market.Medical device will be a better investment if...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Eases Covid Treatment Guidelines

The NHC published the revised covid treatment guideline yesterday which we think is a key step toward the adjustment of its "zero covid" policy.

Li Tang

Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

This insight analyzed Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir after FDA EUA, the global market potential, the impact on China market and related...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.10) - Last Monday's Plunge, New Policy of Gene Therapy, TCM Injections

The article mainly analyzed last Monday's plunge in the healthcare sector in HKEX & its potential impact, new policies to support gene therapy and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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